INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION
Industrial production fell 0.6 percent in February, its fifth consecutive monthly decline.
Manufacturing output decreased 0.4 percent; it has fallen about 2-1/2 percent (not at an annual
rate) since September. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output decreased 0.5
percent in February. Output at utilities dropped back 2.3 percent, and production in mining
slipped 0.5 percent. At 146.0 percent of its 1992 average, industrial production was 1.2 percent
above its February 2000 level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry fell to 79.4
percent in February, its sixth consecutive monthly decline, and is 2.7 percentage points below its
1967-2000 average.
Market Groups
-------------
The index for consumer goods fell 0.5 percent in February; the production of nondurables
decreased 0.7 percent, while the output of durables rose 0.5 percent. The output of nondurable
consumer goods was pulled down by declines in the production of clothing, foods and tobacco,
paper products, and energy products. The production of consumer durables rebounded a bit; a
downturn in motor vehicle output had contributed to a sharp drop-off during the previous four
months.
The output of business equipment slipped 0.3 percent in February. The index for
industrial and other equipment dropped 1.0 percent with declines in machinery and construction
equipment more than offsetting a rise in farm equipment. The production of transit equipment,
which had decreased considerably in the previous two months, fell 0.8 percent because of further
cuts in the assembly of medium and heavy trucks. The output of information processing
equipment posted a relatively small gain of 0.7 percent. The gains in this sector, which includes
computers, have slowed, on balance, in recent months.
The output of construction supplies fell 0.9 percent in February after having been
unchanged in the previous two months; the index is now 2.2 percent below its year-ago level.
The output of materials dropped 0.6 percent, with similar declines posted for both durable and
nondurable materials. Among durable materials industries, the output of semiconductors and
related electronic components increased a modest 0.3 percent. However, the production of
motor-vehicle-related parts and materials posted another large decline. Among nondurable
materials, the output of textiles dropped 2.2 percent in February; declines in the output of paper
and chemicals essentially reversed gains posted in January. The index for energy materials
dropped 0.7 percent in February after two months of little change.
Industry Groups
---------------
Manufacturing output declined 0.4 percent in February, with similar decreases in the
production of durable and nondurable goods; the losses were widespread. Among durable goods
industries, the largest decreases came in stone, clay, and glass products, fabricated metal
products, industrial machinery other than computers, and miscellaneous manufacturing. The
output of motor vehicles and parts, which had fallen almost 22 percent (not at an annual rate)
between September and January, was little changed in February. Among nondurables, a 1.3
percent rise in petroleum refining was the only significant increase.
The factory operating rate declined further in February, to 78.1 percent, which is 3.0
percentage points below its 1967-2000 average and the lowest level since late 1991. Capacity
utilization in high-tech industries (computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors)
dropped to 80.6 percent in February, or 9.4 percentage points below its July 2000 peak. The
utilization rate for primary-processing industries fell 0.9 percentage point, to 78.8 percent, while
that for advanced-processing industries dipped 0.4 percentage point, to 78.4 percent. The
operating rate at utilities fell again, to 90.4 percent from the high rate of 96.3 percent recorded in
December. The operating rate for mining declined slightly to 88.2 percent.
New Release Format
This statistical release, the G.17, was redesigned beginning with the preceding issue.
Special aggregates have been added. Although some detailed industry data no longer appear in
the regular release, they continue to be available on the Federal Reserve Board's public web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17).
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION: SUMMARY
Seasonally adjusted
| 1992=100 | Percent change
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 2000 2001 | 2000 2001 | Feb. '00 to
Industrial production | Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. | Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. | Feb. '01
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
Total index | 148.2 147.7 146.8 146.0 | -.3 -.3 -.6 -.6 | 1.2
Previous estimates | 148.2 147.4 147.0 | -.3 -.5 -.3 |
| | |
Major market groups: | | |
Products, total | 136.3 136.3 135.6 134.9 | .0 .0 -.5 -.5 | .5
Consumer goods | 122.4 122.8 121.7 121.2 | -.3 .4 -.9 -.5 | -1.3
Business equipment | 200.6 199.4 198.6 198.1 | .3 -.6 -.4 -.3 | 6.0
Construction supplies | 141.6 141.5 141.6 140.3 | -.5 .0 .0 -.9 | -2.2
Materials | 169.9 168.4 167.1 166.0 | -.7 -.9 -.8 -.6 | 2.2
| | |
Major industry groups: | | |
Manufacturing | 154.1 152.9 152.0 151.3 | -.5 -.8 -.6 -.4 | .9
Durable | 196.7 195.5 193.4 192.6 | -.4 -.6 -1.1 -.4 | 3.4
Nondurable | 115.5 114.4 114.4 113.9 | -.7 -1.0 .0 -.5 | -2.1
Mining | 101.1 100.2 102.3 101.8 | .9 -.8 2.1 -.5 | 2.7
Utilities | 121.9 129.8 125.5 122.6 | 1.6 6.4 -3.3 -2.3 | 2.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | Capacity
| Percent of capacity | growth
| Average 1982 1988-89 2000 | 2000 2001 | Feb. '00 to
Capacity utilization | 1967-2000 Low High Feb. | Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. | Feb. '01
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
Total industry | 82.1 71.1 85.4 82.0 | 81.4 80.8 80.1 79.4 | 4.5
Manufacturing | 81.1 69.0 85.7 81.2 | 80.5 79.5 78.7 78.1 | 4.9
| | |
Advanced processing | 80.6 71.0 84.2 79.4 | 79.7 79.2 78.8 78.4 | 2.6
Primary processing | 82.2 65.7 88.3 85.2 | 82.8 81.1 79.7 78.8 | 8.5
Mining | 87.4 80.3 88.0 84.9 | 87.3 86.7 88.6 88.2 | -1.1
Utilities | 87.6 75.9 92.6 91.1 | 90.7 96.3 92.8 90.4 | 3.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 1
Industrial Production: Market and Industry Group Summary
Percent change, seasonally adjusted
| | Fourth quarter to | | |
| | fourth quarter | Annual rate | Monthly rate |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | | | | Feb. '00
| 2000 | | 2000 | 2000 2001 | to
Item |Proportion<1>| 1998 1999 2000 | Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 r | Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. | Feb. '01
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | | | |
Total IP | 100.00 | 3.2 5.1 4.3 | 6.7 7.9 3.5 -.6 | -.3 -.3 -.6 -.6 | 1.2
| | | | |
MARKET GROUPS | | | | |
Products | 60.78 | 3.2 3.4 3.0 | 5.3 4.9 2.2 -.2 | .0 .0 -.5 -.5 | .5
Consumer goods | 28.72 | .2 3.1 .5 | 1.2 4.3 -.5 -2.8 | -.3 .4 -.9 -.5 | -1.3
Durable | 6.10 | 4.3 8.2 -4.4 | .9 4.4 -8.9 -12.9 | -1.9 -.5 -3.0 .5 | -7.9
Automotive products | 2.88 | 5.4 3.3 -6.9 | 2.4 5.5 -10.8 -21.9 | -3.0 -2.0 -5.9 1.7 | -13.0
Home electronics | .45 | 11.7 53.3 3.3 | -28.7 31.8 1.3 19.5 | -.4 3.1 -1.8 -.6 | 7.8
Appliances, furniture, carpeting | 1.36 | 6.9 6.0 -1.4 | 11.7 1.4 -10.9 -6.3 | -2.0 2.3 -1.5 .3 | -4.3
Miscellaneous goods | 1.41 | -2.5 4.6 -4.2 | 2.2 -2.9 -6.2 -9.7 | -.3 -1.4 .9 -1.1 | -6.1
| | | | |
Nondurable | 22.62 | -1.0 1.6 1.9 | 1.3 4.2 2.0 .1 | .2 .6 -.3 -.7 | .5
Non-energy | 19.18 | -.5 1.5 1.2 | .8 3.6 1.6 -1.1 | -.1 -.3 .2 -.6 | .3
Foods and tobacco | 9.97 | .6 .2 .9 | 4.2 .2 1.2 -2.1 | .3 -.5 -.4 -.5 | -1.3
Clothing | 1.39 | -8.1 -4.9 -4.4 | 1.9 -2.4 -9.6 -7.0 | .7 -1.0 .1 -2.2 | -7.7
Chemical products | 4.95 | 3.3 5.8 2.5 | -5.0 13.8 .7 1.3 | -.4 .4 .8 .0 | 5.0
Paper products | 2.88 | -5.4 2.6 3.1 | -1.3 2.2 10.6 1.5 | -1.1 -.3 1.2 -1.6 | 2.0
Energy | 3.44 | -4.1 2.5 5.9 | 4.4 7.9 4.5 6.7 | 1.6 5.2 -3.2 -1.1 | 1.7
| | | | |
Business equipment | 14.25 | 9.1 5.7 11.1 | 16.4 10.7 12.1 5.3 | .3 -.6 -.4 -.3 | 6.0
Transit | 2.60 | 12.9 -8.9 -8.8 | -2.7 -2.6 -8.2 -20.3 | .1 -3.5 -4.5 -.8 | -14.8
Information processing | 5.92 | 16.8 21.0 23.1 | 27.5 20.2 26.5 18.6 | 1.3 -.2 1.7 .7 | 19.0
Industrial and other | 5.72 | -.1 -1.5 8.6 | 14.9 7.7 7.7 4.4 | -.7 .1 -.9 -1.0 | 2.7
| | | | |
Defense and space equipment | 1.94 | 8.2 -3.1 -3.3 | -13.8 -2.8 .7 3.6 | 2.3 .6 1.4 -.1 | 3.4
| | | | |
Construction supplies | 6.13 | 7.6 4.5 .5 | 7.0 .3 -1.1 -3.9 | -.5 .0 .0 -.9 | -2.2
Business supplies | 9.03 | 1.8 2.3 1.9 | 5.0 2.7 -2.1 1.9 | .1 -.1 -.4 -.9 | -1.0
| | | | |
Materials | 39.22 | 3.7 8.0 6.3 | 8.8 12.7 5.6 -1.1 | -.7 -.9 -.8 -.6 | 2.2
Durable | 22.78 | 7.2 10.9 12.2 | 17.8 21.1 11.9 -.7 | -.9 -.9 -1.2 -.6 | 5.2
Consumer parts | 4.49 | .1 7.1 .2 | 4.7 4.5 -1.8 -6.3 | -4.0 -2.8 -7.2 -2.0 | -12.3
Equipment parts | 8.68 | 20.5 22.0 36.4 | 43.9 57.0 36.2 12.4 | 1.1 .8 .8 .3 | 27.5
Other | 9.61 | -.6 3.4 -1.7 | 3.8 1.5 -2.0 -9.7 | -1.4 -1.6 -.5 -1.0 | -5.2
| | | | |
Nondurable | 8.38 | -2.8 5.6 -5.2 | -4.1 -1.1 -7.6 -7.7 | -2.3 -2.0 -.1 -.6 | -6.5
Textile | .73 | -8.5 -1.2 -9.7 | 1.8 -1.1 -13.1 -23.8 | -4.8 .8 -.2 -2.2 | -13.5
Paper | 1.53 | -2.9 4.2 -4.5 | -3.2 1.4 -13.6 -1.8 | -3.2 -3.5 .5 -.5 | -6.2
Chemical | 4.31 | -4.0 9.4 -6.2 | -5.3 -.6 -6.8 -11.7 | -1.8 -3.4 .8 -.6 | -7.2
| | | | |
Energy | 8.06 | -.7 .5 1.7 | -3.0 3.7 1.8 4.4 | 1.4 .1 .0 -.7 | 2.6
| | | | |
| | | | |
INDUSTRY GROUPS | | | | |
Manufacturing | 87.40 | 4.0 5.6 4.3 | 7.1 8.0 3.7 -1.3 | -.5 -.8 -.6 -.4 | .9
Durable | 47.81 | 8.0 8.2 8.5 | 12.7 13.7 8.1 -.1 | -.4 -.6 -1.1 -.4 | 3.4
Lumber and products 24 | 1.82 | 5.4 .5 -7.4 | .8 -6.7 -10.5 -12.5 | -1.4 -1.6 -2.2 .5 | -10.5
Furniture and fixtures 25 | 1.61 | 6.2 3.1 5.6 | 4.4 6.5 7.2 4.5 | -1.5 .4 -.1 -.7 | 2.6
Stone, clay, and glass products 32 | 2.38 | 5.6 2.3 .9 | .3 .9 7.3 -4.4 | -2.0 -1.7 .6 -1.5 | -1.8
Primary metals 33 | 3.32 | -3.4 8.0 -5.6 | 2.7 2.7 -10.0 -16.5 | -1.4 -.8 -2.2 -.6 | -8.9
Fabricated metals 34 | 5.49 | 1.5 1.6 1.0 | 6.8 1.5 .5 -4.3 | -1.0 -1.1 .3 -1.3 | -2.9
Industrial machinery and equipment 35 | 9.06 | 11.6 13.6 14.4 | 25.2 12.4 13.3 7.3 | .1 .1 -1.1 -.4 | 6.6
Electrical machinery 36 | 9.02 | 20.4 25.2 39.4 | 44.9 58.8 39.1 18.0 | 1.2 1.8 .8 .2 | 30.8
Motor vehicles and parts 371 | 5.72 | 3.3 5.9 -6.4 | 3.0 9.9 -11.2 -23.6 | -4.2 -5.2 -9.4 -.1 | -19.3
Aerospace and miscellaneous | | | | |
transportation equipment 372-6,9 | 3.52 | 10.4 -11.6 -.3 | -6.0 -3.5 2.9 5.6 | 1.9 .1 -.5 -.8 | .7
Instruments 38 | 4.54 | 3.9 4.5 1.9 | -4.2 5.2 5.1 1.9 | .9 -1.1 1.4 .2 | 4.6
Miscellaneous 39 | 1.31 | .7 6.6 .0 | 2.6 -.9 1.7 -3.1 | -.7 -.6 .8 -1.3 | -1.6
| | | | |
Nondurable | 39.59 | -.4 2.5 -.7 | .5 1.2 -1.5 -2.7 | -.7 -1.0 .0 -.5 | -2.1
Food and tobacco products 20,21 | 10.52 | .8 .3 .8 | 3.9 .0 1.5 -2.0 | .1 -.4 -.4 -.4 | -1.2
Textile mill products 22 | 1.23 | -6.5 -.2 -7.9 | 4.4 -2.4 -13.1 -18.8 | -4.0 1.9 -2.1 -1.2 | -11.8
Apparel products 23 | 1.41 | -6.3 -4.0 -5.3 | .6 -4.2 -9.1 -8.1 | .0 -1.2 .5 -2.1 | -8.1
Paper and products 26 | 3.30 | -.1 3.0 -3.1 | -3.4 1.2 -12.7 3.2 | -2.1 -1.8 -1.4 .0 | -5.3
Printing and publishing 27 | 6.59 | -1.8 1.8 1.9 | .5 .6 4.1 2.5 | -.4 -.6 .7 -1.1 | 1.1
Chemicals and products 28 | 10.33 | .2 6.7 -1.3 | -4.1 3.3 -1.4 -2.9 | -.8 -1.6 .3 -.1 | -1.5
Petroleum products 29 | 2.39 | 2.1 .2 1.2 | 4.9 8.2 -3.2 -4.3 | .3 -1.7 -.7 1.3 | .1
Rubber and plastics products 30 | 3.65 | 1.6 3.6 -1.8 | 3.7 .1 -1.0 -9.4 | -1.6 -1.0 1.2 -1.1 | -3.8
| | | | |
Mining 10-14 | 6.69 | -5.3 -.5 1.6 | 1.8 2.3 2.8 -.7 | .9 -.8 2.1 -.5 | 2.7
Utilities 491,2,3pt | 5.91 | -1.4 2.3 6.7 | 4.5 11.8 1.0 10.1 | 1.6 6.4 -3.3 -2.3 | 2.6
Electric | 4.45 | 1.6 1.7 6.6 | 1.7 13.1 -1.1 13.6 | 2.5 4.0 -3.4 -2.4 | 3.2
Gas | 1.46 | -11.9 4.6 7.2 | 14.7 6.9 8.1 -.3 | -1.3 14.3 -3.1 -2.0 | .2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. Under industry groups, the figures to the right of the series descriptions are 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes. The abbreviation pt
denotes part of an SIC code. Additional industry detail is available on the Board's web site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17). Under market groups, in
the products category, oil and gas drilling and manufactured homes are not shown separately; in the nondurable materials category, containers and miscellaneous
nondurable materials are not shown separately. Under industry groups, in the nondurables category, leather and products is not shown separately.
1. The proportion data are estimates of the relative contribution of each series to the growth of total industrial production in the following year.
r Revised. p Preliminary
Table 2
Industrial Production: Special Aggregates and Selected Detail
Percent change, seasonally adjusted
| | Fourth quarter to | | |
| | fourth quarter | annual rate | Monthly rate | Feb. '00
| 2000 | | 2000 | 2000 2001 | to
Item |Proportion<1>| 1998 1999 2000 | Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 r | Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. | Feb. '01
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | | | |
Total industry | 100.00 | 3.2 5.1 4.3 | 6.7 7.9 3.5 -.6 | -.3 -.3 -.6 -.6 | 1.2
| | | | |
Energy | 13.92 | -3.1 1.2 4.3 | 2.7 6.8 2.9 4.9 | 1.4 1.9 -.9 -.8 | 3.0
Consumer products | 3.44 | -4.1 2.5 5.9 | 4.4 7.9 4.5 6.7 | 1.6 5.2 -3.2 -1.1 | 1.7
Commercial products | 1.90 | -.5 1.0 8.7 | 17.3 15.4 .2 2.9 | .5 4.3 -1.9 -1.2 | 3.1
Oil and gas well drilling | .52 | -26.3 5.6 18.9 | 30.2 17.6 20.2 8.5 | 1.7 .1 5.5 -.4 | 17.3
Converted fuel | 2.29 | -.2 2.8 5.3 | 6.0 -1.9 4.2 13.6 | 1.2 -.8 -3.8 -.7 | -1.8
Primary materials | 5.78 | -1.0 -.7 .2 | -6.9 6.2 .9 .9 | 1.5 .4 1.4 -.6 | 4.5
| | | | |
Non-energy | 86.08 | 4.1 5.6 4.3 | 7.2 8.0 3.6 -1.5 | -.6 -.7 -.5 -.5 | .9
| | | | |
Selected high-technology industries | 8.48 | 37.2 40.6 55.6 | 73.7 70.4 56.9 26.3 | 1.7 1.5 1.0 .8 | 40.4
Computers and office equipment 357 | 2.37 | 54.0 54.3 42.0 | 61.4 33.0 51.9 24.8 | 1.0 .4 1.0 1.0 | 28.6
Communications equipment 366 | 1.94 | 9.0 13.4 35.5 | 40.5 30.3 41.6 30.2 | 2.2 .6 2.6 1.6 | 31.8
Semiconductors and related | | | | |
electronic components 3672-9 | 4.16 | 45.7 47.8 74.1 | 99.7 120.5 66.4 25.5 | 1.9 2.5 .4 .3 | 51.6
| | | | |
Excluding selected high-technology | | | | |
industries | 77.60 | 1.2 2.3 -.6 | 1.5 2.3 -1.6 -4.5 | -.9 -1.0 -.7 -.7 | -3.2
| | | | |
Motor vehicles and parts 371 | 5.72 | 3.3 5.9 -6.4 | 3.0 9.9 -11.2 -23.6 | -4.2 -5.2 -9.4 -.1 | -19.3
Motor vehicles 3711,3 | 3.10 | 6.9 2.1 -12.3 | 4.6 6.9 -20.1 -33.7 | -2.6 -6.1 -6.6 1.5 | -21.7
Motor vehicle parts 3714 | 2.47 | -1.6 10.8 3.3 | 1.2 17.8 2.9 -7.1 | -5.5 -4.8 -11.6 -2.4 | -14.6
| | | | |
Excluding motor vehicles and parts | 71.88 | 1.1 2.0 -.1 | 1.4 1.7 -.8 -2.8 | -.6 -.7 -.1 -.7 | -1.9
Consumer goods | 22.72 | -.4 2.5 .4 | .2 3.3 -.3 -1.6 | -.2 .1 .0 -.6 | -.5
Business equipment | 9.47 | 3.3 -2.4 5.3 | 6.2 5.0 6.3 3.9 | .0 -.6 -.6 -.9 | 1.9
Business supplies | 7.13 | 2.3 2.6 .2 | 2.3 -.3 -2.6 1.6 | .0 -1.2 .0 -.8 | -2.0
Materials | 24.30 | -1.0 3.3 -2.4 | .7 .6 -3.1 -7.4 | -1.5 -1.5 -.2 -.7 | -4.5
| | | | |
Measures excluding selected high-technology | | | | |
industries | | | | |
Total industry | 91.52 | .7 2.2 .1 | 1.7 2.9 -.9 -3.1 | -.5 -.5 -.8 -.7 | -2.2
Manufacturing | 78.92 | 1.2 2.3 -.5 | 1.5 2.4 -1.4 -4.3 | -.8 -1.0 -.8 -.6 | -3.0
Durable | 39.33 | 2.7 2.2 -.3 | 2.4 3.5 -1.3 -5.8 | -.9 -1.1 -1.6 -.7 | -4.0
Industrial machinery 351-6,8,9 | 6.69 | .5 1.2 4.9 | 13.3 5.1 .7 .9 | -.2 .0 -1.9 -1.0 | -1.1
Electrical machinery 361-5,9,71 | 2.92 | -.3 6.5 .3 | -7.1 7.9 1.7 -1.0 | -.8 1.5 .0 -1.0 | 2.2
| | | | |
Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts | | | | |
Total industry | 94.28 | 3.2 5.0 5.0 | 6.9 7.8 4.5 .9 | -.1 -.1 -.1 -.6 | 2.5
Manufacturing | 81.67 | 4.1 5.5 5.1 | 7.4 7.9 4.9 .4 | -.3 -.5 -.1 -.5 | 2.4
Durable | 42.09 | 8.7 8.5 10.6 | 14.1 14.3 11.0 3.4 | .1 .0 -.1 -.4 | 6.6
| | | | |
Primary processing 1 | 34.36 | 4.3 8.8 5.7 | 10.4 12.5 3.8 -3.3 | -1.3 -1.2 -1.1 -.5 | .4
Advanced processing 2 | 53.04 | 3.9 3.7 3.4 | 5.0 5.1 3.7 .0 | .0 -.5 -.3 -.4 | 1.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. See notes to table 1.
1. Primary processing consists of textile mill products, paper and products, industrial chemicals, synthetic materials, and fertilizers, petroleum
products, rubber and plastics products, lumber and products, primary metals, fabricated metals, stone, clay and glass products, semiconductors and
related electronic components, and motor vehicle parts.
2. Advanced processing consists of foods, tobacco products, apparel products, printing and publishing, chemical products and other agricultural
chemicals, leather and products, furniture and fixtures, industrial machinery and equipment, electrical machinery except semiconductors and related
electronic components, transportation equipment except motor vehicle parts, instruments, and miscellaneous manufacturers.
Table 3
Motor Vehicle Assemblies
Millions of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
| | |
| 2000 | 2000 | 2000 2001
| Average| Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 | Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total | 12.77 | 13.12 13.36 12.79 11.62 | 11.68 10.99 10.39 10.36
Autos | 5.54 | 5.65 5.77 5.70 5.00 | 5.02 4.68 4.94 4.77
Trucks | 7.23 | 7.47 7.59 7.09 6.62 | 6.66 6.31 5.44 5.59
Light | 6.84 | 7.01 7.15 6.74 6.31 | 6.32 5.99 5.17 5.35
Medium and heavy | .39 | .46 .44 .35 .31 | .34 .31 .28 .23
| | |
Memo: | | |
Autos and light trucks | 12.38 | 12.66 12.92 12.44 11.30 | 11.34 10.67 10.11 10.13
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. Seasonal factors and underlying data for auto, light truck, and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board's web site,
www.federalreserve.gov/G17/mvsf.htm
Table 4
Industrial Production Indexes: Market and Industry Group Summary
1992 = 100, seasonally adjusted
| 2000 | 2000 2001
Item |Proportion<1>| June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| |
Total IP | 100.00 | 147.9 147.6 148.6 149.0 148.7 148.2 147.7 146.8 146.0
| |
MARKET GROUPS | |
Products | 60.78 | 136.0 135.8 136.6 136.7 136.3 136.3 136.3 135.6 134.9
Consumer goods | 28.72 | 124.2 122.9 123.8 123.8 122.7 122.4 122.8 121.7 121.2
Durable | 6.10 | 164.4 158.7 160.0 162.8 157.3 154.3 153.6 149.0 149.7
Automotive products | 2.88 | 157.8 149.4 153.8 156.7 148.0 143.6 140.8 132.4 134.7
Home electronics | .45 | 775.8 743.3 743.6 786.2 785.9 783.0 807.4 792.9 787.9
Appliances, furniture, carpeting | 1.36 | 139.6 134.8 133.7 137.8 134.0 131.3 134.4 132.3 132.6
Miscellaneous goods | 1.41 | 120.5 121.3 119.7 118.1 117.5 117.1 115.5 116.6 115.2
| |
Nondurable | 22.62 | 114.8 114.5 115.2 114.7 114.5 114.6 115.3 114.9 114.1
Non-energy | 19.18 | 114.5 114.4 114.9 114.1 114.3 114.2 113.9 114.1 113.4
Foods and tobacco | 9.97 | 110.8 111.0 111.4 110.5 110.4 110.7 110.1 109.7 109.2
Clothing | 1.39 | 85.1 85.6 84.2 83.1 82.7 83.2 82.4 82.5 80.7
Chemical products | 4.95 | 139.3 137.4 139.4 138.4 139.0 138.5 139.0 140.1 140.1
Paper products | 2.88 | 111.6 112.4 112.4 112.4 113.8 112.5 112.2 113.6 111.8
Energy | 3.44 | 117.0 114.9 117.1 118.4 115.5 117.3 123.4 119.5 118.2
| |
Business equipment | 14.25 | 192.8 195.0 197.8 199.5 200.0 200.6 199.4 198.6 198.1
Transit | 2.60 | 130.1 127.6 126.8 127.7 121.6 121.8 117.6 112.2 111.3
Information processing | 5.92 | 307.0 313.9 322.1 327.2 332.3 336.7 336.0 341.7 344.0
Industrial and other | 5.72 | 143.6 145.4 147.0 147.3 148.8 147.8 147.9 146.6 145.1
| |
Defense and space equipment | 1.94 | 76.3 77.9 76.1 73.7 75.3 77.0 77.5 78.5 78.5
| |
Construction supplies | 6.13 | 143.4 143.8 142.7 143.1 142.3 141.6 141.5 141.6 140.3
Business supplies | 9.03 | 120.5 119.8 120.6 120.0 120.7 120.7 120.7 120.2 119.1
| |
Materials | 39.22 | 169.4 169.0 170.5 171.3 171.1 169.9 168.4 167.1 166.0
Durable | 22.78 | 230.3 230.5 233.8 235.7 235.0 232.9 230.9 228.0 226.6
Consumer parts | 4.49 | 165.7 158.3 168.3 169.0 168.5 161.8 157.3 146.0 143.1
Equipment parts | 8.68 | 486.2 499.9 505.7 512.1 515.9 521.4 525.5 529.5 531.0
Other | 9.61 | 135.9 135.3 134.7 135.5 133.7 131.8 129.8 129.1 127.8
| |
Nondurable | 8.38 | 115.2 113.9 112.8 112.7 113.4 110.7 108.6 108.4 107.8
Textile | .73 | 101.7 97.9 99.3 95.9 94.0 89.5 90.3 90.1 88.1
Paper | 1.53 | 118.1 114.9 112.8 113.8 117.2 113.4 109.4 110.0 109.4
Chemical | 4.31 | 118.4 117.0 116.8 116.3 115.9 113.7 109.8 110.7 110.1
| |
Energy | 8.06 | 103.1 102.9 104.2 104.3 103.9 105.4 105.5 105.4 104.7
| |
| |
INDUSTRY GROUPS | |
Manufacturing | 87.40 | 153.8 153.7 154.6 155.1 154.9 154.1 152.9 152.0 151.3
Durable | 47.81 | 194.6 194.7 196.9 198.4 197.6 196.7 195.5 193.4 192.6
Lumber and products 24 | 1.82 | 118.7 118.6 115.5 116.8 114.8 113.2 111.4 109.0 109.5
Furniture and fixtures 25 | 1.61 | 141.9 142.6 143.8 146.6 147.2 145.0 145.6 145.4 144.3
Stone, clay, and glass products 32 | 2.38 | 134.6 136.3 136.1 136.5 137.3 134.6 132.3 133.1 131.1
Primary metals 33 | 3.32 | 136.4 133.9 132.4 133.9 129.0 127.3 126.3 123.5 122.8
Fabricated metals 34 | 5.49 | 135.7 136.1 136.3 136.0 136.0 134.7 133.2 133.7 131.9
Industrial machinery and equipment 35 | 9.06 | 250.9 253.9 257.9 260.0 261.5 261.9 262.2 259.3 258.2
Electrical machinery 36 | 9.02 | 555.0 571.2 580.0 592.2 597.4 604.4 615.1 619.7 621.0
Motor vehicles and parts 371 | 5.72 | 176.1 163.1 173.9 175.5 167.2 160.1 151.8 137.6 137.4
Aerospace and miscellaneous | |
transportation equipment 372-6,9 | 3.52 | 93.6 94.9 93.5 92.1 93.6 95.4 95.5 94.9 94.2
Instruments 38 | 4.54 | 122.2 122.6 123.3 123.7 123.5 124.6 123.2 124.9 125.2
Miscellaneous 39 | 1.31 | 130.5 132.1 130.8 130.9 131.1 130.2 129.4 130.4 128.7
| |
Nondurable | 39.59 | 116.7 116.3 116.3 116.0 116.3 115.5 114.4 114.4 113.9
Food and tobacco products 20,21 | 10.52 | 111.1 111.6 111.8 111.0 111.0 111.1 110.6 110.2 109.7
Textile mill products 22 | 1.23 | 103.1 101.4 99.4 98.4 96.7 92.8 94.6 92.6 91.5
Apparel products 23 | 1.41 | 91.2 92.0 90.7 89.5 89.2 89.2 88.1 88.6 86.7
Paper and products 26 | 3.30 | 118.8 114.9 113.3 113.7 117.1 114.7 112.7 111.1 111.1
Printing and publishing 27 | 6.59 | 109.1 110.0 110.4 110.9 111.6 111.2 110.6 111.4 110.1
Chemicals and products 28 | 10.33 | 125.9 124.8 125.9 125.4 125.8 124.8 122.9 123.2 123.0
Petroleum products 29 | 2.39 | 118.8 117.0 117.6 117.4 116.5 116.9 114.9 114.1 115.6
Rubber and plastics products 30 | 3.65 | 143.5 144.4 142.1 141.9 141.3 139.1 137.6 139.3 137.8
| |
Mining 10-14 | 6.69 | 100.4 100.5 101.0 100.4 100.1 101.1 100.2 102.3 101.8
Utilities 491,2,3pt | 5.91 | 121.7 119.1 122.1 121.7 120.0 121.9 129.8 125.5 122.6
Electric | 4.45 | 124.8 121.1 126.1 124.7 124.2 127.3 132.4 128.0 125.0
Gas | 1.46 | 110.5 111.0 108.4 110.5 105.8 104.5 119.4 115.7 113.3
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. See notes to table 1.
Table 5
Industrial Production Indexes: Special Aggregates
1992 = 100, seasonally adjusted
| 2000 | 2000 2001
Item |Proportion<1>| June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| |
Total industry | 100.00 | 147.9 147.6 148.6 149.0 148.7 148.2 147.7 146.8 146.0
| |
Energy | 13.92 | 110.0 109.2 110.8 110.7 109.8 111.3 113.5 112.5 111.5
Consumer products | 3.44 | 117.0 114.9 117.1 118.4 115.5 117.3 123.4 119.5 118.2
Commercial products | 1.90 | 132.5 129.2 132.3 129.3 128.9 129.5 135.1 132.5 130.9
Oil and gas well drilling | .52 | 130.8 136.2 137.1 132.8 136.5 138.9 139.1 146.7 146.1
Converted fuel | 2.29 | 112.4 110.8 115.1 116.6 117.2 118.7 117.8 113.3 112.5
Primary materials | 5.78 | 98.4 98.7 98.9 98.5 97.8 99.3 99.7 101.1 100.5
| |
Non-energy | 86.08 | 154.5 154.3 155.2 155.6 155.4 154.5 153.4 152.6 151.8
| |
Selected high-technology industries | 8.48 | 1193.1 1248.0 1281.6 1310.3 1334.8 1358.1 1378.0 1392.5 1403.4
Computers and office equipment 357 | 2.37 | 1316.2 1370.4 1421.6 1464.2 1487.4 1502.8 1508.3 1522.7 1537.6
Communications equipment 366 | 1.94 | 345.8 362.7 372.3 378.5 390.0 398.6 400.9 411.4 418.1
Semiconductors and related | |
electronic components 3672-9 | 4.16 | 2059.6 2156.9 2203.2 2248.6 2282.9 2327.1 2385.2 2394.2 2401.1
| |
Excluding selected high-technology | |
industries | 77.60 | 125.7 124.8 125.3 125.3 124.8 123.7 122.5 121.6 120.8
| |
Motor vehicles and parts 371 | 5.72 | 176.1 163.1 173.9 175.5 167.2 160.1 151.8 137.6 137.4
Motor vehicles 3711,3 | 3.10 | 165.3 152.2 158.0 160.2 147.0 143.1 134.4 125.5 127.3
Motor vehicle parts 3714 | 2.47 | 194.6 180.6 200.9 201.0 201.0 190.0 180.8 159.8 156.0
| |
Excluding motor vehicles and parts | 71.88 | 122.7 122.5 122.4 122.3 122.3 121.6 120.7 120.6 119.7
Consumer goods | 22.72 | 116.9 116.5 116.6 116.2 116.1 115.8 115.9 115.9 115.2
Business equipment | 9.47 | 135.8 136.9 138.2 138.6 139.5 139.5 138.7 137.9 136.6
Business supplies | 7.13 | 117.6 117.5 117.8 117.7 118.6 118.6 117.1 117.2 116.2
Materials | 24.30 | 125.9 125.2 124.5 124.9 124.4 122.4 120.6 120.4 119.6
| |
Measures excluding selected high-technology | |
industries | |
Total industry | 91.52 | 123.4 122.5 123.2 123.2 122.6 122.0 121.3 120.4 119.6
Manufacturing | 78.92 | 125.3 124.5 124.9 125.0 124.6 123.6 122.3 121.3 120.6
Durable | 39.33 | 134.7 133.3 134.3 134.8 133.5 132.2 130.7 128.6 127.7
Industrial machinery 351-6,8,9 | 6.69 | 148.7 148.7 149.7 149.7 149.9 149.6 149.6 146.8 145.3
Electrical machinery 361-5,9,71 | 2.92 | 137.8 135.9 135.6 138.9 136.6 135.4 137.5 137.4 136.1
| |
Measures excluding motor vehicles and parts | |
Total industry | 94.28 | 146.5 146.9 147.4 147.7 147.8 147.7 147.6 147.4 146.6
Manufacturing | 81.67 | 152.6 153.2 153.5 153.9 154.3 153.8 153.1 153.0 152.3
Durable | 42.09 | 197.2 199.4 200.2 201.7 202.0 202.2 202.1 201.9 201.0
| |
Primary processing | 34.36 | 180.1 179.4 180.3 181.2 181.1 178.8 176.6 174.6 173.6
Advanced processing | 53.04 | 139.4 139.5 140.5 140.8 140.5 140.5 139.8 139.4 138.9
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. See notes to table 2.
Table 6
Capacity Utilization
Percent of capacity, seasonally adjusted
| | 1967- 1988- 1990- 1994-| |
| 2000 | 2000 89 91 95| 2000 | 2000 2001
Item |Proportion<1>| Ave. High Low High| Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 r | Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total industry | 100.00 | 82.1 85.4 78.1 84.4 | 82.0 82.6 82.4 81.4 | 81.4 80.8 80.1 79.4
| | | |
Manufacturing | 88.70 | 81.1 85.7 76.6 84.0 | 81.3 81.9 81.7 80.4 | 80.5 79.5 78.7 78.1
| | | |
Durable | 49.19 | 79.6 84.6 73.1 83.6 | 81.7 82.7 82.5 80.7 | 80.8 79.7 78.3 77.5
Lumber and products 24 | 1.89 | 82.6 93.6 75.5 89.4 | 83.3 81.6 79.1 76.2 | 76.3 75.0 73.3 73.6
Furniture and fixtures 25 | 1.65 | 81.3 86.6 72.5 83.9 | 79.1 79.6 80.1 80.1 | 79.6 79.6 79.3 78.6
Stone, clay, and glass products 32 | 2.31 | 78.9 83.5 69.7 86.8 | 84.9 84.5 85.5 84.0 | 83.9 82.3 82.6 81.3
Primary metals 33 | 3.13 | 81.6 92.7 73.7 95.4 | 88.9 89.4 87.0 83.1 | 82.9 82.3 80.5 80.0
Fabricated metals 34 | 5.85 | 77.9 82.0 71.9 85.2 | 77.8 77.6 77.1 75.8 | 75.8 74.8 74.9 73.8
Industrial machinery and equipment 35 | 9.34 | 81.4 85.4 72.3 87.3 | 81.7 81.9 82.7 82.5 | 82.5 82.1 80.7 79.8
Electrical machinery 36 | 9.26 | 81.4 84.0 75.0 90.1 | 86.3 90.4 90.9 87.3 | 87.1 86.2 84.9 83.3
Motor vehicles and parts 371 | 5.74 | 77.0 89.1 55.9 85.9 | 83.0 84.5 81.7 76.0 | 76.2 72.1 65.3 65.1
Aerospace and miscellaneous | | | |
transportation equipment 372,6-9 | 4.01 | 75.2 87.3 60.7 85.3 | 71.7 71.1 71.7 72.8 | 73.3 73.4 73.0 72.4
Instruments 38 | 4.69 | 81.6 81.4 74.5 82.6 | 78.9 79.6 80.3 80.5 | 81.1 80.1 81.1 81.2
Miscellaneous 39 | 1.32 | 75.9 79.0 71.7 81.9 | 81.8 81.3 81.4 80.5 | 80.5 79.9 80.5 79.4
| | | |
Nondurable | 39.52 | 83.2 87.3 79.7 85.6 | 80.9 80.9 80.5 79.8 | 79.9 79.1 79.1 78.7
Food and tobacco products 20,21 | 10.54 | 83.3 85.9 79.1 85.8 | 81.2 81.2 81.6 81.2 | 81.4 81.0 80.8 80.4
Textile mill products 22 | 1.26 | 85.5 90.4 77.7 92.6 | 83.6 83.4 80.9 77.1 | 75.6 77.1 75.7 74.9
Apparel products 23 | 1.64 | 80.6 85.1 70.7 85.9 | 72.1 71.8 70.5 69.4 | 69.7 69.0 69.5 68.1
Paper and products 26 | 3.18 | 88.7 93.5 83.1 91.6 | 85.8 85.9 82.9 83.3 | 83.2 81.7 80.4 80.4
Printing and publishing 27 | 6.59 | 85.4 91.7 77.8 87.7 | 80.9 81.0 81.8 82.3 | 82.4 81.9 82.5 81.6
Chemicals and products 28 | 10.56 | 79.3 86.2 74.2 84.2 | 77.1 77.2 76.4 75.5 | 75.7 74.5 74.6 74.4
Petroleum products 29 | 1.97 | 87.3 88.5 85.1 97.1 | 94.1 96.0 95.3 94.3 | 94.9 93.4 92.7 93.9
Rubber and plastics products 30 | 3.58 | 84.7 89.6 77.4 91.3 | 85.3 84.6 83.7 80.9 | 80.8 79.7 80.5 79.5
| | | |
Mining | 5.96 | 87.4 88.0 82.0 91.0 | 85.2 85.8 86.6 86.7 | 87.3 86.7 88.6 88.2
Utilities | 5.33 | 87.6 92.6 83.0 93.5 | 89.5 91.2 90.7 92.1 | 90.7 96.3 92.8 90.4
| | | |
Selected high-technology industries | 9.18 | 80.4 81.9 72.4 87.9 | 84.7 88.0 89.1 85.3 | 85.3 83.6 82.2 80.6
Computers and office equipment 357 | 2.79 | 81.2 86.9 66.9 91.4 | 77.4 76.4 79.1 78.2 | 78.4 76.9 76.2 75.4
Communications equipment 366 | 2.03 | 80.4 84.8 73.4 87.8 | 78.6 80.8 84.9 87.3 | 87.7 87.1 88.2 88.3
Semiconductors and related | | | |
electronic components 3672-9 | 4.36 | 80.0 81.1 72.6 90.8 | 92.0 98.5 97.0 88.3 | 88.1 85.8 82.7 80.0
| | | |
Measures excluding selected high-technology | | | |
industries | | | |
Total industry | 90.82 | 82.2 85.7 78.4 84.2 | 81.7 82.0 81.5 80.7 | 80.7 80.2 79.5 78.9
Manufacturing | 79.52 | 81.2 86.1 76.8 83.8 | 80.9 81.1 80.6 79.5 | 79.6 78.7 78.0 77.5
Industrial machinery 351-6,8,9 | 6.54 | 81.3 85.5 72.9 88.1 | 83.2 84.1 84.1 84.2 | 84.2 84.1 82.5 81.6
Electrical machinery 361-5,9,71 | 2.88 | 83.4 87.5 74.3 93.2 | 83.2 84.2 83.9 83.0 | 82.4 83.4 83.2 82.3
| | | |
Primary processing | 33.89 | 82.2 88.3 76.7 88.7 | 85.4 86.4 85.4 82.8 | 82.8 81.1 79.7 78.8
Advanced processing | 54.81 | 80.6 84.2 76.6 82.3 | 79.5 79.8 80.1 79.6 | 79.7 79.2 78.8 78.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. See notes to table 2.
Table 7
Industrial Capacity
Percent change
| Average annual rate | Fourth quarter to fourth quarter | Annual rate | Monthly rate
| 1967- 1980- 1989- 1995-| | 2000 2001 | 2001
Item | 79 88 94 2001 | 1998 1999 2000 2001 | Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 | Feb.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total industry | 3.5 2.2 2.2 5.0 | 6.5 4.6 4.6 3.2 | 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.1 | .3
| | | |
Manufacturing | 3.7 2.5 2.5 5.6 | 7.2 5.1 5.0 3.5 | 5.1 5.0 5.1 4.5 | .3
| | | |
Durable | 3.6 3.1 3.0 8.8 | 10.2 8.4 8.8 6.3 | 8.8 8.8 9.2 8.2 | .6
Nondurable | 3.9 1.8 2.0 2.0 | 4.1 1.3 .8 .3 | 1.0 .8 .5 .3 | .0
| | | |
Mining | .4 .2 -.6 -.2 | -.1 -1.5 -.8 -1.0 | -.5 -.9 -1.5 -1.4 | -.1
Utilities | 4.9 1.2 1.4 2.1 | 1.1 2.4 3.3 3.9 | 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.5 | .3
| | | |
| | | |
Selected high-technology industries | 11.3 15.9 13.5 40.5 | 39.5 37.8 47.6 31.3 | 46.2 49.3 50.9 42.7 | 2.7
Manufacturing ex. selected | | | |
high-technology industries | 3.3 1.4 1.7 2.5 | 4.4 2.1 1.3 .7 | 1.4 1.2 1.0 .8 | .1
| | | |
Primary processing | 3.8 1.6 3.3 7.8 | 9.4 4.9 8.0 5.5 | 7.7 8.6 9.5 8.1 | .6
Advanced processing | 3.7 3.1 2.1 4.1 | 5.7 5.2 3.0 2.2 | 3.2 2.6 2.4 2.3 | .2
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 8
Gross Value of Products
Billions of 1996 dollars at annual rate, seasonally adjusted
| | | 1999 2000 | 2000 2001
Item | 1996 | 2000 | Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 r | Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | | |
Products, total | 2,427.8 | 2,878.3 | 2,807.0 2,842.8 2,875.0 2,879.2 2,861.8 | 2,863.2 2,854.7 2,826.2 2,815.8
| | | |
Final products | 1,862.5 | 2,216.4 | 2,154.6 2,180.0 2,209.0 2,217.1 2,201.4 | 2,203.7 2,195.2 2,169.0 2,163.9
| | | |
Consumer goods | 1,225.0 | 1,342.5 | 1,335.8 1,338.6 1,351.6 1,347.1 1,331.9 | 1,331.2 1,329.7 1,310.7 1,307.7
Durable | 303.9 | 372.3 | 378.7 377.3 382.4 371.5 355.2 | 353.7 350.1 336.4 339.5
Automotive products | 162.6 | 195.0 | 197.6 198.6 201.7 195.3 181.9 | 181.6 176.4 165.1 168.5
Other durable goods | 141.3 | 177.9 | 181.9 179.1 181.0 176.7 175.2 | 173.8 176.4 175.3 174.5
Nondurable | 921.0 | 970.2 | 958.0 962.0 970.1 975.3 974.6 | 975.3 977.0 970.4 964.9
| | | |
Equipment, total | 637.5 | 872.7 | 821.7 846.8 863.9 878.9 879.8 | 883.3 875.3 868.9 866.8
Business and defense | 610.2 | 850.4 | 798.3 823.6 841.2 856.4 859.4 | 862.8 855.5 848.9 846.8
Business | 538.6 | 788.8 | 736.8 765.5 784.1 800.3 802.4 | 805.5 797.4 789.6 787.8
Defense and space | 71.6 | 65.9 | 68.7 66.4 65.7 65.3 66.1 | 66.4 66.8 67.6 67.3
| | | |
Intermediate products | 565.3 | 661.9 | 651.4 661.7 664.9 661.2 659.4 | 658.6 658.5 656.0 650.8
Construction supplies | 235.0 | 285.5 | 282.1 286.9 286.6 284.9 281.8 | 281.4 281.3 281.1 278.7
Business supplies | 330.3 | 376.1 | 369.0 374.4 377.9 375.9 377.1 | 376.8 376.7 374.5 371.7
Commercial energy products | 85.5 | 96.0 | 90.1 93.9 97.1 96.8 97.0 | 95.7 99.1 97.1 96.8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table 9
Diffusion Indexes of Industrial Production
Percent
Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One Month Earlier
1999 53.6 56.5 55.4 59.4 55.1 50.7 58.2 55.8 48.6 64.5 53.3 59.8
2000 58.7 50.4 56.5 51.4 51.4 56.2 54.2 43.5 54.0 43.5 45.7 38.9
2001 46.7
Three Months Earlier
1999 52.9 56.9 56.5 56.5 55.8 58.0 56.2 63.4 58.0 62.0 58.3 62.7
2000 61.2 62.0 59.8 56.2 54.0 52.9 49.6 44.9 48.9 43.1 45.3 42.0
2001 39.7
Six Months Earlier
1999 59.1 53.3 56.2 54.3 58.0 59.8 60.1 60.1 61.6 67.4 62.7 62.7
2000 68.1 65.9 68.1 64.1 60.0 55.4 49.6 43.8 47.5 44.9 41.7 40.2
2001 35.5
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of series that increased over the indicated
span (one, three, or six months) plus one-half the percentage that were unchanged.
Table 10
Electric Power Use
1992 = 100
| | Index, 1992=100
Seasonally adjusted | Not seasonally adjusted
|Billion| 2000 2001 | 2000 2001
Item | KWH | Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. | Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total manufacturing and mining | 933.2 | 107.7 109.1 109.8 109.7 108.2 106.4 | 111.0 112.7 111.5 109.4 107.1 103.8
| | |
Manufacturing | 853.2 | 108.4 109.8 110.7 110.4 109.0 107.2 | 112.0 113.6 112.6 110.0 107.5 104.2
Durable | 366.0 | 110.3 111.3 111.4 110.3 109.9 109.7 | 113.9 115.1 113.0 109.3 107.4 105.7
Nondurable | 487.2 | 106.8 108.6 110.1 110.5 108.3 105.3 | 110.5 112.4 112.2 110.6 107.6 103.0
| | |
Mining | 80.1 | 99.0 100.1 97.5 99.6 97.2 94.9 | 97.2 99.8 97.0 100.9 100.8 99.0
| | |
Total ex. nuclear nondefense | 908.9 | 109.6 110.1 110.2 109.9 108.8 108.4 | 113.8 114.3 111.8 109.2 107.0 105.3
Utility sales to industry | 835.5 | 108.9 109.6 110.3 110.1 108.5 106.4 | 111.7 113.5 111.9 109.8 107.1 103.5
Industrial generation | 97.7 | 98.6 102.8 102.9 104.2 103.3 105.3 | 101.0 100.4 105.3 103.5 106.6 108.7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. Additional industry detail is available on the Board's web site, www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/download.htm.
Table 11
Historical Statistics for Industrial Production, Capacity, and Utilization: Total Industry
Seasonally adjusted
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
| Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.| Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4| Annual
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
Industrial | | |
Production, | | |
Percent | | |
Change <1> | | |
1979 | -.5 .8 .3 -.9 1.2 .0 -.7 -.4 .1 .4 -.5 -.2 | 2.2 1.1 -2.3 -.3 | 3.3
1980 | .5 .1 .0 -1.9 -2.5 -1.3 -.6 1.2 1.5 .7 1.6 .5 | .8 -15.0 -4.2 14.2 | -2.8
1981 | -.9 .5 .5 -.7 .8 .6 .9 -.4 -.8 -.8 -1.4 -1.1 | 1.9 2.2 4.1 -10.5 | 1.6
1982 | -1.6 2.2 -.7 -.9 -.8 -.3 -.8 -.5 -.7 -.8 -.3 -.8 | -6.4 -5.2 -7.3 -7.5 | -5.4
| | |
1983 | 2.1 -.2 1.0 1.3 1.2 .6 1.8 1.3 1.7 .8 -.1 .5 | 6.8 11.9 17.3 10.3 | 3.7
1984 | 2.1 -.2 1.1 .5 .6 .5 .2 .0 -.1 -.5 .1 -.4 | 11.1 7.2 2.6 -2.6 | 8.9
1985 | .4 .9 .3 .2 .2 -.2 -.4 .6 .6 -.9 .6 .7 | 3.0 2.8 .3 1.4 | 1.6
1986 | .6 -.7 -1.0 .8 -.2 -.3 .3 .3 -.1 .9 .5 .9 | 2.0 -1.7 .7 6.5 | 1.1
1987 | -.6 1.2 .4 .4 .4 .9 .6 .1 -.1 1.4 .3 .6 | 4.2 6.7 5.6 7.1 | 4.6
| | |
1988 | .1 .3 .0 .6 .1 .1 .7 .5 -.4 .3 .8 .5 | 3.2 3.1 3.9 3.6 | 4.5
1989 | .6 -.8 .9 .2 -.6 -.2 -1.0 .4 -.2 -.5 .4 .5 | 3.8 .5 -4.4 -.1 | 1.8
1990 | -.5 .5 .5 -.6 .4 .0 .0 .2 .1 -.6 -1.3 -.6 | 2.0 .6 1.0 -5.8 | -.2
1991 | -.5 -.8 -.9 .3 .8 1.2 .1 .1 1.0 -.1 -.1 -.6 | -8.3 1.5 6.2 1.1 | -2.0
1992 | .1 .5 .9 .7 .3 -.2 .7 -.3 .4 .7 .5 .0 | 1.0 6.5 2.4 5.0 | 3.1
| | |
1993 | .4 .5 .2 .3 -.5 .3 .2 -.2 1.1 .3 .4 .8 | 3.8 1.5 1.9 6.2 | 3.5
1994 | .2 .3 .8 .5 .8 .4 .6 .3 .1 .5 .7 1.0 | 5.5 7.7 5.8 6.3 | 5.4
1995 | .6 -.1 .2 -.2 .4 .4 -.4 1.3 .6 -.4 .3 .1 | 6.0 1.1 4.4 2.9 | 4.8
1996 | -.2 1.1 -.1 1.1 .8 .8 .0 .6 .5 .0 1.0 .4 | 2.8 9.2 5.4 5.3 | 4.6
1997 | .5 1.0 .2 .6 .3 .6 .7 .9 .6 .6 .6 .3 | 7.6 6.1 7.9 7.3 | 6.8
| | |
1998 | .4 .0 .3 .5 .4 -.7 -.1 2.1 -.3 .5 -.4 .1 | 3.6 3.0 3.4 2.9 | 4.9
1999 | .6 .3 .7 .1 .7 .2 .8 .4 .1 .8 .3 .7 | 3.9 4.9 5.8 5.7 | 4.2
2000 | .5 .5 .7 .7 .7 .5 -.2 .7 .2 -.2 -.3 -.3 | 6.7 7.9 3.5 -.6 | 5.7
2001 | -.6 -.6 | |
| | |
Industrial | | |
Production <2> | | |
1999 | 135.9 136.3 137.3 137.4 138.4 138.6 139.7 140.3 140.4 141.5 141.9 142.8 | 136.5 138.1 140.1 142.1 | 139.6
2000 | 143.6 144.3 145.2 146.3 147.2 147.9 147.6 148.6 149.0 148.7 148.2 147.7 | 144.4 147.1 148.4 148.2 | 147.5
2001 | 146.8 146.0 | |
| | |
Capacity | | |
1999 | 167.9 168.6 169.2 169.9 170.5 171.1 171.7 172.3 172.9 173.5 174.1 174.8 | 168.6 170.5 172.3 174.1 | 171.4
2000 | 175.4 176.1 176.7 177.4 178.1 178.7 179.4 180.1 180.7 181.4 182.1 182.8 | 176.1 178.1 180.1 182.1 | 179.1
2001 | 183.4 183.9 | |
| | |
Utilization | | |
1979 | 86.7 87.1 87.1 86.1 86.9 86.7 85.9 85.4 85.3 85.5 84.9 84.5 | 87.0 86.6 85.5 85.0 | 86.0
1980 | 84.7 84.6 84.4 82.6 80.4 79.2 78.5 79.3 80.3 80.7 81.8 82.1 | 84.6 80.7 79.4 81.5 | 81.5
1981 | 81.2 81.4 81.6 80.9 81.4 81.8 82.3 81.8 80.9 80.1 78.8 77.7 | 81.4 81.4 81.7 78.9 | 80.8
1982 | 76.3 77.8 77.1 76.2 75.4 75.0 74.2 73.7 73.0 72.2 71.9 71.1 | 77.1 75.6 73.6 71.7 | 74.5
| | |
1983 | 72.5 72.3 72.9 73.7 74.5 74.8 76.1 77.0 78.2 78.7 78.6 78.9 | 72.6 74.4 77.1 78.7 | 75.7
1984 | 80.4 80.1 80.8 81.0 81.3 81.5 81.5 81.3 81.0 80.5 80.4 79.8 | 80.4 81.3 81.3 80.2 | 80.8
1985 | 79.9 80.4 80.4 80.3 80.3 79.9 79.4 79.6 79.9 79.0 79.2 79.5 | 80.2 80.2 79.6 79.2 | 79.8
1986 | 79.8 79.2 78.2 78.7 78.4 78.1 78.2 78.3 78.2 78.8 79.1 79.7 | 79.1 78.4 78.2 79.2 | 78.7
1987 | 79.1 80.0 80.2 80.5 80.7 81.4 81.8 81.8 81.6 82.6 82.8 83.2 | 79.8 80.8 81.7 82.9 | 81.3
| | |
1988 | 83.2 83.4 83.3 83.7 83.7 83.6 84.1 84.5 84.1 84.2 84.8 85.1 | 83.3 83.7 84.2 84.7 | 84.0
1989 | 85.4 84.6 85.3 85.3 84.7 84.4 83.4 83.6 83.3 82.8 83.0 83.2 | 85.1 84.8 83.4 83.0 | 84.1
1990 | 82.7 83.0 83.3 82.7 82.9 82.7 82.6 82.6 82.6 82.0 80.8 80.2 | 83.0 82.8 82.6 81.0 | 82.3
1991 | 79.6 78.9 78.1 78.2 78.7 79.6 79.5 79.5 80.2 80.0 79.8 79.2 | 78.9 78.8 79.7 79.6 | 79.3
1992 | 79.1 79.4 79.9 80.4 80.4 80.1 80.5 80.2 80.3 80.8 81.0 80.9 | 79.5 80.3 80.3 80.9 | 80.2
| | |
1993 | 81.0 81.3 81.3 81.4 80.9 80.9 81.0 80.7 81.4 81.5 81.6 82.1 | 81.2 81.1 81.0 81.7 | 81.3
1994 | 82.1 82.1 82.5 82.7 83.2 83.3 83.5 83.5 83.3 83.5 83.7 84.3 | 82.2 83.1 83.4 83.8 | 83.1
1995 | 84.4 84.0 83.8 83.3 83.3 83.2 82.5 83.3 83.4 82.8 82.7 82.4 | 84.1 83.3 83.1 82.6 | 83.3
1996 | 81.9 82.4 82.0 82.5 82.8 83.1 82.7 82.8 82.9 82.5 83.0 83.0 | 82.1 82.8 82.8 82.8 | 82.6
1997 | 83.0 83.5 83.3 83.4 83.3 83.3 83.5 83.8 83.8 83.9 83.9 83.7 | 83.3 83.3 83.7 83.8 | 83.5
| | |
1998 | 83.5 83.1 82.9 82.8 82.7 81.6 81.1 82.4 81.8 81.8 81.1 80.8 | 83.2 82.4 81.8 81.2 | 82.1
1999 | 81.0 80.9 81.1 80.9 81.2 81.0 81.3 81.4 81.2 81.5 81.5 81.7 | 81.0 81.0 81.3 81.6 | 81.2
2000 | 81.9 82.0 82.2 82.5 82.7 82.7 82.3 82.6 82.4 82.0 81.4 80.8 | 82.0 82.6 82.4 81.4 | 82.1
2001 | 80.1 79.4 | |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
<1> Quarterly percent changes are at annual rates. Annual percentage changes are calculated from annual averages.
<2> Annual averages of industrial production are calculated from not seasonally adjusted indexes.
Table 12
Historical Statistics for Industrial Production, Capacity, and Utilization: Manufacturing
Seasonally adjusted
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
| Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.| Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4| Annual
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
IP (percent | | |
change) | | |
1979 | -.3 .7 .4 -1.5 1.5 .1 -.5 -.9 .0 .5 -.7 -.1 | 3.4 .3 -2.4 -1.5 | 3.6
1980 | .2 .3 -.4 -2.1 -3.1 -1.5 -.7 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.7 .3 | -.4 -17.7 -4.7 16.8 | -3.9
1981 | -.6 .6 .3 .2 .7 -.1 .6 -.8 -.8 -1.1 -1.6 -1.6 | 2.5 4.2 -.1 -13.1 | 1.6
1982 | -2.0 2.9 -.7 -.9 -.4 .0 -.8 -.5 -.5 -1.2 -.3 -.7 | -7.6 -2.7 -5.6 -8.0 | -5.9
| | |
1983 | 2.5 .4 1.4 1.1 1.4 .8 1.5 1.1 2.2 .6 .3 -.1 | 11.5 14.7 17.1 11.2 | 5.7
1984 | 2.5 .6 .7 .5 .4 .7 .3 .1 -.2 .0 .1 -.3 | 13.2 6.6 3.4 -.4 | 9.9
1985 | .1 .6 .7 .2 .5 -.3 -.4 .9 .4 -.8 1.1 -.1 | 2.1 4.2 1.1 1.6 | 2.3
1986 | 1.5 -.5 -.9 1.4 -.1 -.3 .3 .6 .0 .8 .4 1.2 | 4.5 1.7 1.7 6.7 | 2.8
1987 | -.8 1.6 .2 .5 .3 1.0 .7 -.2 .1 1.3 .5 .6 | 5.0 7.0 5.5 7.6 | 5.3
| | |
1988 | -.2 .4 -.1 1.0 -.1 .0 .7 .3 .2 .2 .9 .6 | 2.3 4.1 3.7 5.2 | 4.7
1989 | .9 -1.2 .8 .1 -.7 .0 -1.1 .3 -.3 -.6 .4 .1 | 4.3 -.7 -4.5 -1.4 | 1.9
1990 | -.2 .9 .3 -.8 .4 -.1 .0 .3 -.1 -.6 -1.3 -.6 | 2.9 -.1 .8 -6.3 | -.5
1991 | -.9 -.7 -1.1 .3 .7 1.4 .2 .2 1.1 -.1 -.2 -.5 | -9.7 1.2 7.8 1.7 | -2.4
1992 | .3 .6 1.0 .6 .4 -.1 .7 -.2 .3 .7 .5 -.1 | 2.4 7.3 3.0 4.5 | 4.0
| | |
1993 | .7 .3 .2 .5 -.4 .0 .2 -.2 1.3 .2 .5 .9 | 4.4 2.0 1.5 6.6 | 3.7
1994 | .0 .4 1.0 .8 .9 .2 .8 .5 .2 .6 .9 1.0 | 5.6 9.4 6.6 7.6 | 6.0
1995 | .6 -.2 .3 -.3 .2 .5 -.6 1.3 .9 -.3 .2 .1 | 6.5 .7 3.9 3.6 | 5.3
1996 | -.2 1.0 -.2 1.3 .9 .9 .2 .6 .6 .0 1.0 .6 | 2.3 10.1 7.1 5.7 | 4.9
1997 | .5 1.2 .4 .5 .3 .8 .6 1.1 .5 .6 .7 .4 | 8.5 6.7 9.0 7.7 | 7.8
| | |
1998 | .6 .0 .2 .6 .3 -.8 -.1 2.3 -.2 .7 -.2 .2 | 4.8 2.8 3.9 4.7 | 5.6
1999 | .5 .5 .5 .2 .8 .2 .6 .6 .1 .9 .5 .6 | 4.1 5.4 6.0 6.8 | 4.8
2000 | .6 .4 .9 .6 .6 .4 -.1 .6 .3 -.1 -.5 -.8 | 7.1 8.0 3.7 -1.3 | 6.1
2001 | -.6 -.4 | |
| | |
IP (1992 = 100 | | |
1999 | 140.5 141.2 141.9 142.2 143.4 143.6 144.5 145.3 145.6 146.8 147.5 148.4 | 141.2 143.1 145.1 147.6 | 144.8
2000 | 149.2 149.9 151.3 152.2 153.1 153.8 153.7 154.6 155.1 154.9 154.1 152.9 | 150.1 153.0 154.4 153.9 | 153.6
2001 | 152.0 151.3 | |
| | |
Capacity | | |
(percent of | | |
1992 output) | | |
1999 | 175.3 176.0 176.8 177.5 178.3 179.0 179.7 180.3 181.0 181.7 182.4 183.1 | 176.0 178.3 180.3 182.4 | 179.3
2000 | 183.8 184.6 185.3 186.1 186.9 187.6 188.4 189.1 189.9 190.7 191.5 192.3 | 184.6 186.9 189.2 191.5 | 188.0
2001 | 193.0 193.7 | |
| | |
Utilization | | |
(percent) | | |
1979 | 86.4 86.7 86.9 85.3 86.4 86.3 85.6 84.5 84.3 84.5 83.6 83.3 | 86.7 86.0 84.8 83.8 | 85.3
1980 | 83.3 83.3 82.7 80.8 78.1 76.7 75.9 77.0 77.9 78.6 79.7 79.7 | 83.1 78.5 76.9 79.3 | 79.5
1981 | 79.0 79.2 79.3 79.3 79.6 79.3 79.6 78.8 78.0 77.0 75.6 74.2 | 79.2 79.4 78.8 75.6 | 78.3
1982 | 72.6 74.6 73.9 73.1 72.7 72.6 71.8 71.4 70.9 69.9 69.6 69.0 | 73.7 72.8 71.4 69.5 | 71.8
| | |
1983 | 70.6 70.8 71.8 72.5 73.4 73.9 74.8 75.6 77.2 77.6 77.7 77.5 | 71.1 73.2 75.9 77.6 | 74.4
1984 | 79.3 79.5 79.8 80.0 80.1 80.3 80.4 80.2 79.8 79.6 79.5 79.0 | 79.5 80.1 80.1 79.4 | 79.8
1985 | 78.9 79.1 79.3 79.2 79.4 78.9 78.3 78.8 78.8 77.9 78.5 78.2 | 79.1 79.2 78.6 78.2 | 78.8
1986 | 79.1 78.6 77.8 78.7 78.5 78.1 78.2 78.6 78.4 78.9 79.1 79.9 | 78.5 78.5 78.4 79.3 | 78.7
1987 | 79.1 80.2 80.3 80.6 80.7 81.4 81.8 81.5 81.5 82.5 82.8 83.1 | 79.9 80.9 81.6 82.8 | 81.3
| | |
1988 | 82.9 83.1 82.9 83.7 83.5 83.4 83.8 84.0 84.0 84.1 84.8 85.1 | 83.0 83.5 83.9 84.7 | 83.8
1989 | 85.7 84.5 85.0 85.0 84.2 84.1 83.0 83.1 82.7 82.1 82.2 82.1 | 85.1 84.4 82.9 82.1 | 83.6
1990 | 81.8 82.5 82.6 81.8 82.0 81.8 81.6 81.7 81.5 80.9 79.7 79.0 | 82.3 81.9 81.6 79.9 | 81.4
1991 | 78.2 77.5 76.6 76.8 77.1 78.1 78.2 78.2 79.0 78.9 78.6 78.1 | 77.5 77.3 78.5 78.5 | 77.9
1992 | 78.1 78.5 79.1 79.5 79.6 79.4 79.8 79.5 79.6 79.9 80.2 79.9 | 78.6 79.5 79.6 80.0 | 79.4
| | |
1993 | 80.4 80.4 80.4 80.7 80.2 80.1 80.1 79.7 80.6 80.6 80.7 81.3 | 80.4 80.3 80.1 80.9 | 80.4
1994 | 81.1 81.1 81.7 82.1 82.6 82.5 82.8 82.9 82.8 83.0 83.3 83.8 | 81.3 82.4 82.8 83.4 | 82.5
1995 | 84.0 83.5 83.3 82.7 82.5 82.6 81.7 82.3 82.7 82.0 81.7 81.4 | 83.6 82.6 82.2 81.7 | 82.5
1996 | 80.9 81.3 80.7 81.4 81.7 82.0 81.8 81.9 82.0 81.6 82.0 82.1 | 81.0 81.7 81.9 81.9 | 81.6
1997 | 82.1 82.6 82.5 82.5 82.3 82.5 82.6 83.1 83.0 83.0 83.1 82.9 | 82.4 82.5 82.9 83.0 | 82.7
| | |
1998 | 82.9 82.4 82.0 82.0 81.8 80.6 80.1 81.5 80.9 81.0 80.4 80.2 | 82.4 81.5 80.8 80.5 | 81.3
1999 | 80.2 80.2 80.3 80.1 80.4 80.2 80.4 80.6 80.4 80.8 80.9 81.0 | 80.2 80.3 80.5 80.9 | 80.5
2000 | 81.2 81.2 81.6 81.8 81.9 82.0 81.6 81.7 81.7 81.2 80.5 79.5 | 81.3 81.9 81.7 80.4 | 81.3
2001 | 78.7 78.1 | |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. See note to table 11.
Table 13
Historical Statistics for Industrial Production, Capacity, and Utilization: Total Industry Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries
Seasonally adjusted
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
| Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.| Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4| Annual
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
IP (percent | | |
change) | | |
1979 | -.7 .8 .2 -1.1 1.1 -.1 -.8 -.5 .0 .3 -.6 -.3 | .9 -.1 -3.5 -1.4 | 2.2
1980 | .3 .0 -.1 -2.2 -2.7 -1.3 -.8 1.2 1.6 .6 1.6 .5 | -.7 -16.6 -4.9 13.8 | -4.0
1981 | -.9 .4 .4 -.8 .8 .5 .9 -.5 -1.0 -.8 -1.6 -1.4 | 1.3 1.1 3.2 -11.8 | .8
1982 | -1.6 2.0 -.8 -.9 -.9 -.4 -1.0 -.4 -1.0 -1.0 -.3 -1.2 | -7.7 -5.8 -8.2 -9.1 | -6.5
| | |
1983 | 2.5 -.4 .8 1.2 1.2 .4 1.8 1.4 1.6 .6 -.2 .5 | 6.9 10.6 16.8 8.7 | 2.8
1984 | 1.9 -.3 1.0 .4 .4 .3 .1 -.1 -.2 -.5 .0 -.5 | 9.7 5.3 1.0 -3.5 | 7.5
1985 | .3 .9 .2 .1 .2 -.1 -.5 .6 .7 -.8 .3 .7 | 2.3 2.5 .5 1.0 | .9
1986 | .7 -.8 -1.1 .8 -.3 -.2 .0 .2 -.2 1.0 .4 1.0 | 1.7 -1.8 -.6 6.3 | .8
1987 | -.8 1.2 .3 .4 .5 .8 .5 .1 -.2 1.3 .3 .5 | 3.5 6.8 5.0 6.5 | 4.2
| | |
1988 | .1 .2 .1 .4 -.2 .1 .6 .5 -.3 .4 .6 .5 | 2.8 1.8 3.3 3.5 | 3.9
1989 | .5 -.7 .9 .1 -.7 -.3 -.9 .4 -.3 -.3 .2 .3 | 3.5 -.3 -4.8 -.4 | 1.4
1990 | -.4 .5 .5 -.5 .3 -.1 .0 .1 .2 -.6 -1.4 -.7 | 1.7 .6 .7 -6.4 | -.5
1991 | -.5 -.9 -1.0 .4 .8 1.2 .1 .0 1.0 -.2 -.2 -.7 | -8.8 1.4 6.1 .4 | -2.4
1992 | -.2 .4 .8 .7 .2 -.4 .6 -.4 .3 .6 .4 .0 | -.6 5.7 1.3 3.9 | 2.2
| | |
1993 | .4 .5 .1 .3 -.6 .2 .2 -.2 1.0 .2 .4 .7 | 3.7 .8 1.2 5.0 | 2.8
1994 | .1 .3 .6 .3 .7 .3 .4 .2 .0 .4 .6 .8 | 4.5 5.6 4.0 4.2 | 4.1
1995 | .3 -.3 -.1 -.4 .2 .3 -.6 1.1 .3 -.7 .1 -.1 | 2.9 -1.3 2.2 -.5 | 2.4
1996 | -.3 .9 -.3 1.0 .6 .6 -.3 .3 .2 -.4 .8 .2 | .7 7.0 2.2 2.0 | 2.0
1997 | .3 .8 -.1 .4 .1 .3 .4 .8 .5 .6 .4 .1 | 5.2 3.0 5.4 6.4 | 4.1
| | |
1998 | .1 -.2 .3 .4 .3 -1.1 -.5 2.0 -.6 .2 -.6 -.2 | 1.0 1.8 -.1 .0 | 2.7
1999 | .4 .0 .5 -.3 .5 -.1 .4 .3 .0 .6 .0 .3 | .9 1.4 2.9 3.4 | 1.2
2000 | .1 .1 .2 .3 .3 .0 -.7 .5 .0 -.4 -.5 -.5 | 1.7 2.9 -.9 -3.1 | 1.8
2001 | -.8 -.7 | |
| | |
IP (1992 = 100 | | |
1999 | 119.3 119.4 119.9 119.6 120.2 120.1 120.6 120.9 120.9 121.7 121.7 122.1 | 119.5 119.9 120.8 121.8 | 120.5
2000 | 122.2 122.3 122.6 123.0 123.4 123.4 122.5 123.2 123.2 122.6 122.0 121.3 | 122.4 123.2 122.9 122.0 | 122.6
2001 | 120.4 119.6 | |
| | |
Capacity | | |
(percent of | | |
1992 output) | | |
1999 | 147.1 147.3 147.6 147.8 148.1 148.3 148.5 148.7 148.9 149.1 149.3 149.5 | 147.3 148.1 148.7 149.3 | 148.3
2000 | 149.6 149.8 150.0 150.2 150.3 150.5 150.7 150.8 150.9 151.0 151.2 151.3 | 149.8 150.3 150.8 151.2 | 150.5
2001 | 151.4 151.5 | |
| | |
Utilization | | |
(percent) | | |
1979 | 86.6 87.1 87.1 86.1 86.8 86.6 85.8 85.2 85.1 85.3 84.7 84.3 | 86.9 86.5 85.4 84.7 | 85.9
1980 | 84.4 84.3 84.1 82.1 79.8 78.7 78.0 78.8 80.0 80.4 81.6 81.8 | 84.3 80.2 78.9 81.3 | 81.2
1981 | 81.0 81.2 81.5 80.7 81.3 81.6 82.2 81.6 80.7 79.9 78.5 77.3 | 81.2 81.2 81.5 78.6 | 80.6
1982 | 76.0 77.4 76.7 75.9 75.1 74.7 73.9 73.5 72.6 71.8 71.5 70.5 | 76.7 75.2 73.3 71.3 | 74.1
| | |
1983 | 72.3 72.0 72.6 73.4 74.2 74.5 75.8 76.8 78.0 78.4 78.2 78.6 | 72.3 74.0 76.9 78.4 | 75.4
1984 | 80.0 79.7 80.4 80.6 80.8 81.0 80.9 80.7 80.5 80.0 79.9 79.3 | 80.1 80.8 80.7 79.7 | 80.3
1985 | 79.5 80.0 80.1 80.0 80.0 79.8 79.3 79.6 80.0 79.1 79.2 79.6 | 79.9 79.9 79.6 79.3 | 79.7
1986 | 80.1 79.4 78.5 79.0 78.7 78.5 78.4 78.5 78.3 79.0 79.3 80.0 | 79.3 78.7 78.4 79.4 | 79.0
1987 | 79.4 80.2 80.5 80.8 81.1 81.7 82.1 82.2 81.9 83.0 83.2 83.5 | 80.0 81.2 82.1 83.2 | 81.6
| | |
1988 | 83.6 83.7 83.7 84.0 83.8 83.9 84.3 84.6 84.3 84.6 85.0 85.3 | 83.7 83.9 84.4 85.0 | 84.2
1989 | 85.7 85.0 85.6 85.6 84.9 84.6 83.6 83.9 83.5 83.2 83.3 83.4 | 85.4 85.0 83.7 83.3 | 84.4
1990 | 83.0 83.3 83.7 83.1 83.3 83.1 83.0 83.0 83.0 82.4 81.1 80.5 | 83.3 83.2 83.0 81.4 | 82.7
1991 | 80.0 79.2 78.4 78.6 79.1 80.0 80.0 79.9 80.6 80.4 80.2 79.5 | 79.2 79.2 80.2 80.0 | 79.7
1992 | 79.3 79.5 80.1 80.6 80.6 80.2 80.7 80.3 80.4 80.8 81.0 81.0 | 79.7 80.5 80.4 80.9 | 80.4
| | |
1993 | 81.2 81.5 81.5 81.6 81.0 81.1 81.2 80.9 81.6 81.6 81.8 82.2 | 81.4 81.2 81.2 81.9 | 81.4
1994 | 82.2 82.3 82.7 82.7 83.2 83.3 83.5 83.5 83.3 83.4 83.7 84.2 | 82.4 83.1 83.4 83.7 | 83.1
1995 | 84.2 83.8 83.5 83.0 83.0 83.1 82.5 83.2 83.3 82.5 82.4 82.2 | 83.8 83.0 83.0 82.4 | 83.1
1996 | 81.8 82.4 81.9 82.6 82.9 83.3 82.8 82.9 82.9 82.5 83.0 83.0 | 82.0 82.9 82.9 82.8 | 82.7
1997 | 83.1 83.6 83.3 83.4 83.3 83.3 83.4 83.8 83.9 84.2 84.2 84.0 | 83.3 83.3 83.7 84.2 | 83.6
| | |
1998 | 83.8 83.3 83.3 83.3 83.3 82.1 81.4 82.8 82.1 82.0 81.3 81.0 | 83.5 82.9 82.1 81.4 | 82.5
1999 | 81.1 81.0 81.2 80.9 81.2 81.0 81.2 81.3 81.2 81.7 81.5 81.7 | 81.1 81.0 81.3 81.6 | 81.3
2000 | 81.6 81.6 81.7 81.9 82.1 82.0 81.3 81.7 81.6 81.2 80.7 80.2 | 81.7 82.0 81.5 80.7 | 81.5
2001 | 79.5 78.9 | |
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note. Excluded industries are computers, communications equipment, and semiconductors and related electronic components. See also note to table 11.
Table 14
Historical Statistics for Industrial Production, Capacity, and Utilization: Manufacturing Excluding Selected High-Technology Industries
Seasonally adjusted
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
| Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.| Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4| Annual
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |
IP (percent | | |
change) | | |
1979 | -.7 .7 .3 -1.7 1.4 .0 -.6 -1.1 -.1 .4 -.9 -.2 | 1.9 -1.2 -3.8 -2.9 | 2.2
1980 | .0 .1 -.6 -2.4 -3.4 -1.5 -.9 1.7 1.6 1.0 1.7 .2 | -2.3 -19.9 -5.6 16.5 | -5.4
1981 | -.6 .4 .2 .1 .7 -.3 .5 -.9 -1.1 -1.2 -1.8 -2.0 | 1.8 2.8 -1.7 -15.0 | .5
1982 | -2.1 2.7 -.8 -.9 -.5 -.1 -1.0 -.3 -.9 -1.4 -.4 -1.1 | -9.4 -3.4 -6.7 -10.2 | -7.4
| | |
1983 | 3.1 .3 1.3 1.0 1.4 .6 1.5 1.1 2.1 .4 .1 -.1 | 12.1 13.2 16.3 9.1 | 4.7
1984 | 2.3 .4 .6 .3 .1 .5 .2 -.1 -.3 .0 .0 -.4 | 11.6 4.0 1.4 -1.3 | 8.1
1985 | .0 .6 .6 .1 .5 -.1 -.5 .9 .4 -.8 .8 -.1 | 1.2 4.0 1.4 1.1 | 1.5
1986 | 1.6 -.6 -1.0 1.5 -.2 -.1 -.1 .6 -.1 .9 .3 1.3 | 4.4 1.9 .3 6.6 | 2.5
1987 | -1.0 1.6 .1 .6 .4 .9 .6 -.2 .0 1.3 .5 .5 | 4.1 7.1 4.8 6.9 | 4.8
| | |
1988 | -.2 .2 .1 .8 -.4 .0 .6 .1 .3 .4 .8 .5 | 1.8 2.6 2.9 5.3 | 4.0
1989 | .9 -1.1 .8 .0 -.7 -.1 -1.0 .3 -.3 -.4 .2 -.1 | 4.1 -1.7 -5.0 -1.8 | 1.4
1990 | -.1 .9 .4 -.7 .4 -.2 .1 .2 .0 -.7 -1.4 -.7 | 2.7 -.1 .4 -7.1 | -.9
1991 | -.8 -.8 -1.2 .4 .7 1.5 .2 .1 1.2 -.2 -.3 -.6 | -10.3 1.0 7.8 1.0 | -2.8
1992 | .0 .5 1.0 .6 .3 -.2 .6 -.3 .2 .5 .5 -.1 | .6 6.3 1.7 3.1 | 2.9
| | |
1993 | .8 .3 .1 .5 -.5 .0 .2 -.4 1.2 .1 .4 .8 | 4.3 1.3 .6 5.2 | 2.9
1994 | .0 .4 .8 .5 .8 .0 .6 .3 .1 .4 .7 .8 | 4.5 7.1 4.5 5.2 | 4.5
1995 | .3 -.5 -.1 -.5 .1 .3 -.8 1.0 .6 -.7 -.1 -.1 | 2.9 -2.0 1.3 -.3 | 2.4
1996 | -.3 .8 -.5 1.2 .7 .7 -.1 .2 .3 -.4 .8 .4 | -.2 7.6 3.6 2.0 | 1.9
1997 | .3 .9 .0 .3 .0 .5 .4 .9 .4 .6 .5 .1 | 5.8 3.2 6.2 6.7 | 4.7
| | |
1998 | .3 -.2 .2 .6 .2 -1.2 -.5 2.2 -.6 .4 -.5 -.1 | 2.0 1.4 .0 1.6 | 3.2
1999 | .2 .2 .2 -.2 .6 -.1 .3 .4 .1 .7 .2 .2 | .7 1.4 2.7 4.4 | 1.5
2000 | .1 .0 .5 .1 .2 .0 -.7 .3 .1 -.4 -.8 -1.0 | 1.5 2.4 -1.4 -4.3 | 1.7
2001 | -.8 -.6 | |
| | |
IP (1992 = 100 | | |
1999 | 121.2 121.5 121.7 121.5 122.2 122.0 122.4 122.9 123.0 123.9 124.1 124.3 | 121.5 121.9 122.7 124.1 | 122.5
2000 | 124.3 124.3 124.9 125.1 125.4 125.3 124.5 124.9 125.0 124.6 123.6 122.3 | 124.5 125.2 124.8 123.5 | 124.5
2001 | 121.3 120.6 | |
| | |
Capacity | | |
(percent of | | |
1992 output) | | |
1999 | 151.0 151.3 151.6 151.8 152.1 152.3 152.5 152.7 153.0 153.2 153.4 153.5 | 151.3 152.1 152.7 153.4 | 152.4
2000 | 153.7 153.9 154.1 154.3 154.4 154.6 154.8 154.9 155.0 155.2 155.3 155.4 | 153.9 154.4 154.9 155.3 | 154.6
2001 | 155.5 155.6 | |
| | |
Utilization | | |
(percent) | | |
1979 | 86.3 86.7 86.8 85.2 86.2 86.0 85.4 84.2 84.0 84.2 83.3 83.0 | 86.6 85.8 84.5 83.5 | 85.1
1980 | 82.8 82.8 82.2 80.1 77.2 75.9 75.1 76.3 77.4 78.0 79.2 79.2 | 82.6 77.8 76.3 78.8 | 78.8
1981 | 78.6 78.8 78.9 78.8 79.3 78.9 79.2 78.4 77.5 76.5 75.0 73.4 | 78.8 79.0 78.4 75.0 | 77.8
1982 | 71.9 73.8 73.2 72.5 72.0 71.9 71.1 70.9 70.2 69.2 68.8 68.0 | 72.9 72.1 70.7 68.7 | 71.1
| | |
1983 | 70.1 70.3 71.2 71.9 72.9 73.3 74.4 75.2 76.8 77.0 77.1 77.0 | 70.5 72.7 75.5 77.1 | 73.9
1984 | 78.7 79.0 79.3 79.4 79.3 79.6 79.6 79.4 79.0 78.9 78.8 78.4 | 79.0 79.4 79.3 78.7 | 79.1
1985 | 78.2 78.5 78.8 78.7 78.9 78.7 78.1 78.7 78.8 78.0 78.5 78.2 | 78.5 78.8 78.5 78.2 | 78.5
1986 | 79.4 78.8 78.0 79.0 78.8 78.6 78.4 78.8 78.6 79.2 79.3 80.2 | 78.7 78.8 78.6 79.6 | 78.9
1987 | 79.3 80.5 80.5 80.9 81.1 81.8 82.2 82.0 81.9 82.9 83.2 83.6 | 80.1 81.3 82.0 83.2 | 81.7
| | |
1988 | 83.3 83.5 83.4 84.0 83.6 83.6 84.1 84.1 84.3 84.5 85.1 85.4 | 83.4 83.8 84.2 85.0 | 84.1
1989 | 86.1 85.0 85.5 85.3 84.5 84.3 83.2 83.4 82.9 82.5 82.5 82.3 | 85.5 84.7 83.2 82.4 | 83.9
1990 | 82.1 82.8 83.0 82.3 82.4 82.1 82.1 82.1 81.9 81.3 80.0 79.3 | 82.6 82.3 82.0 80.2 | 81.8
1991 | 78.5 77.8 76.8 77.0 77.5 78.5 78.6 78.6 79.5 79.3 78.9 78.4 | 77.7 77.7 78.9 78.9 | 78.3
1992 | 78.3 78.6 79.3 79.7 79.8 79.5 79.9 79.6 79.6 79.9 80.1 79.9 | 78.7 79.7 79.7 80.0 | 79.5
| | |
1993 | 80.4 80.5 80.5 80.9 80.3 80.2 80.3 79.9 80.7 80.6 80.8 81.3 | 80.5 80.5 80.3 80.9 | 80.5
1994 | 81.2 81.3 81.8 82.1 82.6 82.4 82.7 82.8 82.7 82.8 83.2 83.7 | 81.4 82.3 82.7 83.2 | 82.4
1995 | 83.8 83.2 82.9 82.4 82.2 82.3 81.5 82.1 82.5 81.7 81.4 81.1 | 83.3 82.3 82.0 81.4 | 82.3
1996 | 80.7 81.1 80.6 81.3 81.7 82.1 81.9 81.9 81.9 81.4 81.9 82.0 | 80.8 81.7 81.9 81.8 | 81.6
1997 | 82.1 82.6 82.4 82.4 82.2 82.4 82.5 83.0 83.1 83.3 83.4 83.1 | 82.4 82.4 82.8 83.3 | 82.7
| | |
1998 | 83.1 82.6 82.4 82.5 82.4 81.1 80.4 81.8 81.1 81.2 80.6 80.3 | 82.7 82.0 81.1 80.7 | 81.6
1999 | 80.3 80.3 80.3 80.0 80.4 80.1 80.2 80.4 80.4 80.9 80.9 80.9 | 80.3 80.2 80.4 80.9 | 80.4
2000 | 80.9 80.8 81.0 81.1 81.2 81.0 80.4 80.6 80.6 80.3 79.6 78.7 | 80.9 81.1 80.6 79.5 | 80.5
2001 | 78.0 77.5 | |
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Note. See note to table 13.
Explanatory Note
The Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization statistical release,
which is published around the middle of the month, reports measures of
output, capacity, and capacity utilization in manufacturing, mining, and
the electric and gas utilities industries. The release also includes monthly
indexes on the use of electric power in manufacturing and mining. More
detailed descriptions of industrial production, capacity utilization, and
electric power are available at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17 at
the Board's World Wide Web site. In addition, files containing data shown
in the release, more detailed series that were published in the G.17 prior to
December 2000, and historical data are available at the Board's Web site.
Instructions for searching for and downloading specific series are provided
as well. For paid access to the data files through the Department of
Commerce's Economic Bulletin Board or World Wide Web site, please
call STAT-USA at 1-800-STAT-USA or 202-452-1986. Diskettes
containing historical data and the data published in this release also are
available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
Publications Services, 202-452-3245.
Industrial Production
Coverage. The industrial production (IP) index measures the real output
of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries; the
reference period for the index is 1992. For the period since 1997, the total
IP index has been constructed from 276 individual series based on the
1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes. These individual
series are classified in two ways: (1) market groups, and (2) industry
groups. Market groups consist of products and materials. Total products
are the aggregate of final products, such as consumer goods and
equipment, and intermediate products (which are inputs to nonindustrial
sectors). Materials are inputs in the manufacture of products. Major
industry groups include two-digit SIC industries and aggregates of these
industries-for example, durable and nondurable manufacturing, mining,
and utilities. A complete description of the market and industry structures,
including details regarding series classification, relative importance
weights, and data sources, is available on the Board's web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/About.html) . Changes in
output for the market and industry groups are summarized in table 1 and
the levels of output (in index form) are shown in table 4. Special
aggregates, that highlight the relative importance and contributions of
several key industries, such as high-technology and motor vehicles, are
summarized in tables 2 and 5. For a detailed description of the contents of
the statistical tables, see below.
Source data. On a monthly basis, the individual indexes of industrial
production are constructed from two main types of source data: (1) output
measured in physical units and (2) data on inputs to the production
process, from which output is inferred. Data on physical products, such as
tons of steel or barrels of oil, are obtained from private trade associations
and from government agencies; data of this type are used to estimate
monthly IP wherever possible and appropriate. Production indexes for a
few industries are derived by dividing estimated nominal output
(calculated using unit production or sales and unit values) by a
corresponding Fisher price index; the most notable of these fall within the
high-technology grouping and include computers and semiconductors.
When suitable data on physical product are not available, estimates of
output are based on either production-worker hours or electric power use
by industry. Data on hours worked by production workers are collected in
the monthly establishment survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. The data on electric power use are described below. The factors
used to convert inputs into estimates of production are based on historical
relationships between the inputs and the comprehensive annual data used
to benchmark the IP indexes; these factors also may be influenced by
technological or cyclical developments. The annual data used in
benchmarking the individual IP indexes are constructed from a variety of
source data, such as the quinquennial Censuses of Manufactures and
Mineral Industries and the Annual Survey of Manufactures, prepared by
the Bureau of the Census; the Minerals Yearbook, prepared by the United
States Geological Survey of the Department of the Interior; and
publications of the Department of Energy.
Aggregation Methodology and Weights. The aggregation method for
the IP index is a version of the Fisher-ideal index formula. (For a detailed
discussion of the aggregation method, see Federal Reserve Bulletin
February 1997 and March 2001.) In the IP index, series that measure the
output of an individual industry are combined using weights derived from
their proportion in the total value-added output of all industries. The IP
index, which extends back to 1919, is built as an annually weighted
chain-type index since 1977. Between 1977 and 1992, the weights for
months from January to June were drawn from the year containing the
month being estimated and the preceding year; for months from July to
December, the weights are drawn from the current and following year.
Since mid 1992, the weights change monthly, eliminating distortions in
the contributions of several high-technology industries-sectors where
weights shift noticeably year-to-year. Thus, the current formula for the
growth in monthly IP (or any of the sub-aggregates) since mid 1992 is the
geometric mean of the change in output (I), and, as can be seen below, is
computed using the unit value added estimate for the current month (pm)
and the estimate for previous month:
The IP proportions (typically shown in the first column of the relevant
tables in the G.17 release) are estimates of the industries' relative
contributions to overall growth in the following year. For example, the
relative importance weight of the motor vehicles and parts industry is
about 5 percent. If output in this industry increased 10 percent in a month,
then this gain would boost growth in total IP by percentage point (0.05
x 10% = 0.5%). To assist users with calculations, the Federal Reserve's
web site provides supplemental monthly statistics that represent the exact
proportionate contribution of a monthly change in a component index to
the monthly change in the total index (www.federalreserve.gov/
releases/G17/ipdisk/ipweights.sa).
Timing. The first estimate of output for a month is published around the
15th of the following month. The estimate is preliminary (denoted by the
superscript "p" in tables) and subject to revision in each of the subsequent
three months as new source data become available. (Revised estimates are
denoted by the superscript "r" in tables.) For the first estimate of output
for a given month, about 48 percent of the source data (in value-added
terms) are available; the fraction of available source data increases to about
85 percent for estimates in the second month that the estimate is published,
96 percent in the third month, and 97 percent in the fourth month. Data
availability by data type is summarized in the table below:
Proportion (in percent) of industrial production covered by data
available in successive monthly estimates, 1999.
Month of estimate
Type of data 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Physical product 19\1 33 46\2 47
Production-worker hours 28\3 28 28 28
Electric power use 0 22 22 22
Federal Reserve estimates\4 53 17 3 3\5
Total industrial production 100 100 100 100
1.Includes provisional series totaling nearly 13 percent of IP that are
derived from weekly data and for which the actual data may lag several
months.
2.Includes quarterly data totaling 6 percent of IP that, on average, are
received for the third estimate of industrial production. Specifically, data
are available for the second estimate of the last month of a quarter, the
third estimate of the second month of a quarter, and the fourth estimate of
the first month of a quarter.
3.This figure refers only to those individual series that both initially and
ultimately are based on the hours data.
4.Estimates for series not yet covered by data for physical product or
electric power use.
5.Includes monthly and quarterly physical product data totaling 3
percent of IP that typically are available too late for inclusion in the
current index but are included at the time of an annual revision.
Until the source data for a particular series become available for a given
month, estimates for the missing observations are based on other available
data, such as labor input, recent trends in output and orders, and anecdotal
reports from industry sources. After the fourth month that an estimate is
published, indexes are not revised further until the time of an annual
revision or a benchmark revision. These historical revisions are typically
published in the late fall of each year; the most recent revision was
published on December 5, 2000, and incorporated revised source data as
well as data from the 1998 Annual Survey of Manufactures and the 1997
Census of Manufactures.
Seasonal adjustment. Individual series are seasonally adjusted using
Census X-12 ARIMA. For series based on production-worker hours, the
current seasonal factors were estimated with data through October 2000;
for other series, the factors were estimated with data through at least June
2000. Series are pre-adjusted for the effects of holidays or the business
cycle when appropriate. For the data since 1977, all seasonally adjusted
aggregate indexes are calculated by aggregating the seasonally adjusted
indexes of the individual series.
Reliability. The average revision to the level of the total IP index, without
regard to sign, between the first and the fourth estimates was 0.27 percent
during the 1987-99 period. The average revision to the percent change in
total IP, without regard to sign, from the first to the fourth estimates was
0.21 percentage point during the 1987-99 period. In most cases (about 83
percent), the direction of change in output indicated by the first estimate
for a given month is the same as that shown by the fourth estimate.
Rounding. The published percent changes are calculated from unrounded
indexes, and may not be the same as percent changes calculated from the
rounded indexes shown in the release.
Capacity Utilization
Overview. The Federal Reserve Board constructs estimates of capacity
and capacity utilization for industries in manufacturing, mining, and
electric and gas utilities. For a given industry, the capacity utilization rate
is equal to an output index (seasonally adjusted) divided by a capacity
index. The Federal Reserve Board's capacity indexes attempt to capture
the concept of sustainable maximum output-the greatest level of output a
plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after
factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of
inputs to operate the capital in place.
Coverage. Capacity indexes are constructed for 78 detailed industries (55
in manufacturing, 21 in mining, and 2 in utilities), which mostly
correspond to industries at the two- and three-digit SIC level. Estimates of
capacity and utilization are available for a variety of groups, including
primary and advanced processing industries within manufacturing,
durable and nondurable manufacturing, total manufacturing, mining,
utilities, and total industry. Also, special aggregates are available, such as
high-tech industries and manufacturing excluding high-tech industries.
Component industries of the primary- and advanced-processing groups
within manufacturing are listed in the note on table 2 of the release.
Source Data. The monthly rates of capacity utilization are designed to be
consistent with both the monthly data on production and the periodically
available data on capacity and utilization. Because there is no direct
monthly information on overall industrial capacity or utilization rates, the
Federal Reserve first estimates annual capacity indexes from the source
data. Capacity data reported in physical units from government sources
(primarily from the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of
Energy's Energy Information Administration) and trade sources are
available for portions of several industries in manufacturing (e.g., paper,
industrial chemicals, petroleum refining, motor vehicles), as well as for
electric utilities and mining; these industries represent about 15 percent of
total industrial capacity. When physical product data are unavailable for
manufacturing industries, capacity indexes are based on responses to the
Bureau of the Census's Survey of Plant Capacity (SPC); these industries
account for a bit more than 80 percent of total industry capacity. In the
absence of utilization data for a few mining and petroleum series, capacity
is based on trends through peaks in production (roughly 4 percent of total
industry capacity). A detailed description of the methodology used to
construct the capacity indexes is available on the Board's web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/cap_notes.html).
Aggregation Methodology. Monthly capacity aggregates are calculated
in three steps: (1) utilization aggregates are calculated on an annual basis
through the most recent full year as capacity-weighted aggregates of
individual utilization rates; (2) the annual aggregate capacity is derived
from the corresponding production and utilization aggregates; (3) the
monthly capacity aggregate is obtained by interpolating with a Fisher
index of its constituent monthly capacity series. Utilization rates for the
individual series and aggregates are calculated by dividing the pertinent
monthly production index by the related capacity index.
Consistency. A major aim is that the Federal Reserve utilization rates be
consistent over time so that, for example, a rate of 85 percent means about
the same degree of tightness that it meant in the past. A major task for the
Federal Reserve in developing reasonable and consistent time series of
capacity and utilization is dealing with inconsistencies between the
movements of the industrial production index and the survey-based
utilization rates. The McGraw-Hill/DRI Survey, now discontinued, was
the primary source of manufacturing utilization rates for many years. This
was a survey of large companies that reported, on average, higher
utilization rates than those reported by establishments covered by the SPC
(currently the primary source of factory operating rates) for the fourteen
years they overlapped. Adjustments have been made to keep the industry
utilization rates currently reported by the Federal Reserve roughly in line
with rates formerly reported by McGraw-Hill. As a consequence, the rates
reported by the Federal Reserve tend to be higher than the rates reported in
the SPC.
Perspective. Over the 1967-1999 period, the average total industry
utilization rate is 82.0 percent; for manufacturing, the average factory
operating rate has been 81.1 percent. Industrial plants usually operate at
capacity utilization rates that are well below 100 percent: none of the
broad aggregates has ever reached 100 percent. For total industry and
total manufacturing, utilization rates have exceeded 90 percent only in
wartime. The highs and lows in capacity utilization shown in table 6 are
specific to each series and do not all occur in the same month.
Electric Power
Coverage. Electric power data for sales by utilities to industry users and
for electric power produced by cogenerators (manufacturing and mining
firms that produce electricity for their own use or to sell to a utility) are
generally collected at the 3-digit SIC level for mining and manufacturing.
Aggregates for 2-digit industries, as well as for total mining, durable,
nondurable, total manufacturing and total industrial electric power use, are
computed. An aggregate showing total industry excluding nuclear
nondefense is shown separately because the value-added proportion for
the nondefense nuclear material series (part of SIC 2819) in total IP is
considerably less than its share of total electric power use. In addition,
aggregates for utility sales to industrial users and industry generation are
computed. While only the major aggregates are shown in the release, data
for the 2- and 3-digit industries are available on the Board's web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17).
Source Data. Electric power data are collected from a sample of utilities
and cogenerators covering all twelve Federal Reserve Districts. The
primary criterion for inclusion of a utility in the panel is whether the utility
provides electric power to industrial customers. A comparison of Federal
Reserve kilowatt-hour aggregates to estimates from the 1998 Annual
Survey of Manufactures (the most recent available) suggests the Federal
Reserve data cover about 75 percent of the overall sales to manufacturing
in that year. The cogeneration panel covers about 50 percent of
cogeneration used directly by manufacturers. In order to provide more
complete coverage and correct for any shortcomings of the survey, the
series are benchmarked at the 3-digit industry level to the latest available
data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the Census of
Manufactures.
Methodology. The data we receive from utilities and cogenerators are
edited for anomalies and aggregated, using self weights, to the 3-digit SIC
industry levels and above. Where reports are late or unavailable for some
reason, responses are estimated.
Seasonal Adjustment. Series are seasonal adjusted at the 3-digit SIC
level, with seasonally-adjusted aggregates typically computed as sums of
seasonally adjusted components. The seasonal adjustment procedure
(Census X-12 program) is used without trading-day adjustments because
the reporting periods of the various utilities are not the same. A leap year
adjustment is also made where appropriate.
Description of Tables.
Table 1 summarizes the latest changes in output for the major market and
industry groupings. Fourth-quarter to fourth-quarter changes for the past
three years are shown. Output changes expressed at an annual rate for the
past four quarters as well as monthly changes for the latest four months are
shown. In addition, year-over-year changes are displayed for the latest IP
month.
Table 2, which is in the same format as table 1, summarizes the latest
changes in output for a special group of aggregates that have been
constructed for analytical purposes. The total index is sub-divided into
two broad categories: an energy grouping, which includes consumer
energy products, commercial energy products, energy materials, and oil
and gas well drilling, and a nonenergy grouping, which includes the
remaining portion of the total index. Within the nonenergy aggregate,
several other analytically useful categories are shown. One of these is a
grouping of high-technology industries, which is composed of
semiconductors and related electronic components, and industries that use
a large concentration of these parts-computers and communication
equipment. Other sub-groupings of the market and industry structures
excluding this high-technology grouping and motor vehicles and parts are
shown.
Table 3 displays the last nine months of motor vehicle assemblies, shown
at seasonally adjusted annual rates. Seasonal factors for auto, light truck,
and medium and heavy truck production are available on the Board's web
site (www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/mvsf.html). Monthly
changes in the IP indexes for the corresponding motor vehicle series will
differ slightly from the monthly changes in assemblies, mainly because the
IP indexes are built from a weighted (based on relative values) aggregate
of the individual models.
Tables 4 and 5 show seasonally adjusted indexes for recent months for
the major market and industry groups included on table 1 and the special
aggregates displayed on table 2.
Table 6 summarizes the capacity utilization for the major industry
groupings as well as for a few special aggregates. In addition to the
utilization rates for the most recent four months and four quarters, the
1967-1999 average of utilization rates and operating rates for relevant
cyclical peaks and troughs also are shown for each series.
Table 7 summarizes capacity growth. Average rates of growth in capacity
for selected historical periods and for the most recent five years (on a
fourth-quarter to fourth-quarter basis) are shown. In addition, growth rates
for capacity on a annual-average basis are shown for the latest four
quarters; the capacity growth rate for the current IP month is shown as
well.
Table 8 shows total products expressed in gross values in billions of
chained 1996 dollars at an annual rate. Compiling the IP index using
gross-value weights facilitates comparison with other dollar-based data.
The gross-value system focuses on products that leave the industrial sector
and includes both final and intermediate products. The materials
consumed in making final and intermediate products are implicitly
included in the value weights applied to product series. The gross-product
weights are derived from Census of Manufactures and Annual Survey of
Manufactures data.
Table 9 shows diffusion indexes, which are calculated as the percentage of
IP series that increased over the relevant span (one, three, or six months)
plus one-half of the percentage of series that were unchanged. Because
available source data for the current IP month account for a little less than
half of the total index, the diffusion indexes are published with a
one-month lag.
Table 10 shows the most recent six months in index form (both seasonally
and not seasonally adjusted) of electric power use by industry for the
major industry aggregates.
Tables 11-14 display historical seasonally adjusted data for total IP and
manufacturing as well as the aggregates excluding high-technology
industries. Monthly changes in output as well as indexes for output,
utilization, and capacity are shown.
Note: The summary tables in the G17 release do not include all of the
publicly available data. The more detailed series for IP, utilization,
capacity, and electric power are available at the Board's web site
(www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/download.html).
References and Release Dates
References. The annual revision published in early December 2000 will
be described in an article to be published in the March 2001 Federal
Reserve Bulletin. The annual revision published late 1999 is described
more completely in the Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol.86 (March 2000). A
description of the aggregation methods for industrial production and
capacity utilization is included in an article in the Federal Reserve
Bulletin, vol. 83 (February 1997), pp. 67-92. The Federal Reserve
methodology for constructing industry-level measures of capital is detailed
in "Capital Stock Estimates for Manufacturing Industries: Methods and
Data" by Mike Mohr and Charles Gilbert (1996), which can be obtained at
www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/capital_stock_doc-latest.pdf.
Industrial Production-1986 Edition contains a more detailed description
of the other methods used to compile the industrial production index, plus
a history of its development, a glossary of terms, and a bibliography. The
major revisions to the IP indexes and capacity utilization since 1990 have
been described in the Federal Reserve Bulletin (April 1990, June 1990,
June 1993, March 1994, January 1995, January 1996, February 1997,
February 1998, January 1999, and March 2000).
Release Schedule for 2001
At 9:15 a.m. on
January 17, February 16, March 16, April 17, May 14, June 15, July 17,
August 15, September 14, October 16, November 16, and December 14.
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