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Reality Check Charts
a weekly feature

 Chart Commentary by
Mitch Harris of the Reality Check newsletter

Chart Archives
1/11/00: 10 January Effect Candidates
January Effect Special Report:

10 Low Priced Stocks With Outstanding Recovery Prospects

This report offers 10 specially selected stocks that we have determined offer good recovery prospects during the currently bullish seasonal period that favors depressed and out of favor smaller cap stocks. We do not favor chasing already exploited, overvalued issues such as internet stocks or many tech issues on the basis that buying high will allow us to sell even higher. While this has been the ongoing Wall Street game, it is not ours. We wish investors of this type of strategy well as we remain comfortable with sticking to our own game plan.

The following issues offer diversification across a broad number of market sectors. Some of the characteristics that are appealing to us are that many show insider accumulation as prices have declined (a vote of confidence by management), double bottoms with basing &/or reversal characteristics within their price charts, and bullish divergence’s (marked on charts).

Associated Estates (AEC), 8 3/4, (REIT) Yield: 17%

Indicators are bullish but slightly overbought due to recent dividend declaration. Buy dip below 8 � ahead of the January 14 Dividend Record Date. The REIT Sector analysis that we use recently turned bullish!

2) Bank One (ONE), 31 �, Down sharply on problems with their credit card operations, management should have this addressed and recovery prospects based partially on potential for lower interest rates. Use 28 as a stop/loss point.

Chart indicators are bullish after making higher lows against the double bottom of the price & higher indicator bottoms that offered bullish divergence’s.

Bethlehem Steel (BS), 9 3/16, already up 43% from the low, should continue to benefit from better steel pricing and recent sanctions imposed on foreign dumping. Buy a dip below 8 � for a target of 10 � - 11.

Short term Indicators have become overbought and divergent, suggesting a pull back to at least test the 8 - 8 � breakout point. We would use it for buying.

Eastman Kodak (EK), 62 7/16, one of the "Dogs of the Dow", We think EK offers good recovery prospects with a target of 80+ with a higher than average 2.80% dividend yield.

Indicators are mixed, with momentum bullish and Stochastics and On Balance Volume trying to bottom.

Humana (HUM), 8 � is the largest HMO in the US and shows a pattern of rising bottoms. A push to 9 � - 10 would confirm the double bottom, and insiders recently took advantage of the depressed price to load up!

While indicators here too are becoming modestly extended, they are bullish and allow for further gains. Buy some now, add to it if it dips!

Kroger (KR) 18 15/16, "Let’s go Krogering!" Recently slammed on an earnings pre-announcement, this quality and largest US supermarket chain may be basing for an attempted recovery.

With short term indicators turned down, we would prefer not to chase this, but wait for a further retracement of its recent gains, looking to accumulate if it dips to 17 � and hope for a resumption of the recovery to at least the 24 � - 25 area of resistance.

olaroid (PRD), 18 �, Its not that we are in love with the photo industry, but Polaroid insiders have been showing steady accumulation of the stock. It is also in what we would consider to be in a green zone below 20, where it has bottomed in the past, and a red zone above 25, where it has topped out. Try to accumulate below current levels.

Indicators are mixed, from bullish to neutral, offering opportunity to accumulate with further weakness.

8) Silicon Graphics (SGI), 9 �, provides systems ranging from desktop workstations and servers to supercomputers, offering advanced computing and 3D visualization. They also design software for Internet and entertainment applications and their systems can manipulate 3D models for computer-aided design, as well as being used as a tool for video editing, animation, technical publishing, Web Pages and software development. They seem to be in the right businesses for the day, and offer the prospects for a price recovery that are required of these recommendations.

We recommend accumulating into the current weakness, below 10. An upturn would confirm a bullish double bottom chart formation.

9) Theragenics (TGX), produces radiation seed implants used in the treatment of prostate cancer. "TheraSeeds" are implanted into the prostate in a one-time, minimally invasive procedure, that has been shown in independent clinical studies to offer better success than other conventional therapies, with reduced side effects. They also develop, manufacture, and market radiological, pharmaceuticals and other devices used in the treatment of cancer.

Daily indicators indicate there should be no great hurry to buy, so we recommend accumulation if it can be done below 9. The stock is on a Point & Figure "low pole" buy alert (not shown), implying a dip should not make a lower low & would a offer the chance we are hoping for.

 

Comp USA (CPU) is the largest retailer of computers and other peripheral equipment in the US. Because of the trend toward commoditizing computers (even to the point that some companies are giving them away for free with subscriptions to their services), Comp USA’s share price has been sold down to depressed levels. They have dramatically restructured their business to include principal marketing, product, and service functions of their other businesses that include direct sales to corporate, government, and education customers and their growing marketing of training and technical services.

Short term indicators have just turned bullish and we would buy this up to 6 � for a potential double!

There were other stocks we think have appealing recovery prospects as well, but we felt 10 was more than enough of a shopping list for this report. You don’t need to buy all of them to select what appeals to you. For other trading suggestions, please refer to the portfolio page within the Reality Check Newsletter each month, or to our email changes each Tuesday and Friday morning. We wish everyone good fortune!

 

 

              Market Trend Realities (MTR) is a Registered Investment Advisory which manages personal, corporate, Trust, and retirement accounts on a fee only basis. Several low cost, flexible management fee arrangements are available. Investment Advisor, Mitch Harris has studied the Point & Figure Charting Method under the direct supervision of Michael Burke, Editor of the prestigious Investors Intelligence research organization. Management is based on a unique combination of technical analysis methods and tools which include, The Point & Figure charting method, Elliott Wave Analysis & techniques, industry group analysis, cycle analysis, Relative Strength Analysis, Stochastics, and investor sentiment studies. MTR offers a very uniquely structured managed mutual fund program using the RYDEX family of mutual funds, which offer outperformance potential whether equity markets are rising OR falling! Inquiries are welcome by calling us at (513) 421-8737, or by email at: mtr@fuse.net  

               MTR also publishes a monthly investment newsletter called "Reality Check", which offers technical commentary on the stock & bond markets, the Dollar Index, gold & gold stocks (XAU), Treasury yields, utilities, investor sentiment, and Federal Reserve policy. It also offers stock trading recommendations each month with price targets, stop loss points and insider activity. There are 4 trading portfolios, including a short selling account (we are very proud that our short sale recommendations have averaged 12.5% "compounded" during the roaring bull market of the last 5 years). Short term market commentaries are updated on Tuesday and Friday mornings, along with portfolio changes on this web page. They are also emailed for free to anyone who provides us with their email address. The regular subscription rate is $200 (US) per year. A special first time subscriber rate of $139 is available to  viewers. Samples are available upon request. MTR will be happy to send information on any of the above mentioned services. Please email us your home or business address and specify your interest(s).

 

 

 
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Last modified: April 02, 2001

Published By Tulips and Bears LLC