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10/5/98   U.S. DOLLAR INDEX  (DXY)                                                   Points to Watch: Watch the U.S. dollar for clues to the future direction of the U.S. market. Dollar broke down through long term up trendline in late August.  Current swing down in dollar index is to same level as November 1997 down swing.  A further drop through this level would be bearish for the dollar and stocks. A break through the 50% fibonacci retracement level at 94.3 would confirm a change of trend in the dollar.  A falling dollar is bearish for the stock market as foreign investors are less likely to buy dollar denominated assets, including U.S. stocks. Foreign investors have been one of the key legs upon which the 1990's bull market has rested.

 

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