Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)
The MACD is a trend following momentum indicator that shows the
relationship between three moving averages of prices.
This method can be used for any time frame. It could be 5 minute bars, 15
minutes bars or daily bars. Many traders will also trade in multiple time
frames using a longer time frame for trend, and the shorter period for
entry and exit.
The MACD is the difference between a 26-period and 12-period exponential
moving average. A 9 period exponential moving average, called the "signal"
(or "trigger") line is plotted on top of the MACD to show buy/sell
opportunities. On the charts below, the MACD line is the green colored
line, and the trailing, slower moving line is the signal line. Some
technical analysis programs will show the MACD as a histogram bar.
There are three popular ways to use the MACD: crossovers,
overbought/oversold conditions, and divergences.
The most common use is as a crossover method. Using this interpretation,
the trading rule is to sell when the MACD falls below its signal line.
Similarly, a buy signal occurs when the MACD rises above its signal line.
It is also popular to buy/sell when the MACD goes above/below zero.
Some traders will use MACD as an overbought and oversold indicator. When
using the indicator in this manner, when the shorter moving average pulls
away dramatically from the longer moving average (i.e., the MACD rises), it
is likely that the security price is overextending and will soon return to
more realistic levels. MACD overbought and oversold conditions vary from
security to security.
The other way some traders use MACD is to spot divergences from an
anticipated movement. Since there are no indicators or patterns that work
all the time, reactions against the anticipated move can signal a major
move. A bearish divergence occurs when the MACD is making new lows while
prices fail to reach new lows. A bullish divergence occurs when the MACD is
making new highs while prices fail to reach new highs. Both of these
divergences are most significant when they occur at relatively
overbought/oversold levels.
Let's look at Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC).
During the week of October 11, INTC broke support and moved down from the
79 area to the 65 area October 19.
Stocks do not go straight down and a rally in INTC brought the stock back
up to the 75 area.
This rally fell short of the 75 resistance and indicators are saying the
INTC is running out of steam.
Notice how both the MACD and the Momentum indicators have turned down.
If INTC breaks below 71 during the day, I would exit longs.
An aggressive trader may want to establish a Short position below 71, with
a stop at 73 �.
Many stocks are exhibiting similar patterns and you can use this strategy
with other stocks too.
Do not take the trade unless INTC breaks below 71. The morning trading has
been volatile.
