Two of my favorites trading indicators are Moving Average Crossovers and
MACD. When these two indicators in sync, trading signals tend to be more
reliable.
I also use and watch channel breakouts of support and resistance.
Once again today for the second time in a week, we have combining indicators
saying Buy.
Do we have a tradable bottom?
I feel the risk vs. reward says YES!
As always, we need to manage risk and use stops. Trading against a major
trend is always more frustrating then with the trend. The overall trend is
still down. We need a few more up days to confirm trend reversal.
Moving Averages and Moving Average Crossovers
The moving average crossover method calculates two moving averages, each
based on a different number of periods of trading data. When the
shorter-term (fewer period) average crosses above the longer-term average
from below, this is a buy signal. When the shorter-term average crosses
below the longer-term average from above, this is a sell signal.
Moving averages are used to smooth prices, dampening the distractions of
short price movement so that the underlying trend is clearer. Moving
averages always lag the market and, therefore, will never buy market bottoms
or sell market tops. Like any other trend-following system, the moving
average crossover will perform best when markets are trending because it
automatically places the trader on the right side of every extended move.
When markets are moving sideways, however, the lack of extended moves will
cause losses.
MACD "Moving Average Convergence/Divergence"
The MACD is a trend following
momentum indicator that shows the relationship between three moving averages
of prices.
This method can be used for any time frame. It could be 5 minute bars, 15
minutes bars or daily bars. Many traders will also trade in multiple time
frames using a longer time frame for trend, and the shorter period for entry
and exit.
The MACD is the difference between a 26-period and 12-period exponential
moving average. A 9 period exponential moving average, called the “signal”
(or “trigger”) line is plotted on top of the MACD to show buy/sell
opportunities. On the charts below, the MACD line is the green colored
line, and the trailing, slower moving line is the signal line. Some
technical analysis programs will show the MACD as a histogram bar.
There are three popular ways to use the MACD: crossovers,
overbought/oversold conditions, and divergences.
The most common use is as a crossover method. Using this interpretation,
the trading rule is to sell when the MACD falls below its signal line.
Similarly, a buy signal occurs when the MACD rises above its signal line. It
is also popular to buy/sell when the MACD goes above/below zero.
Some traders will use MACD as an overbought and oversold indicator. When
using the indicator in this manner, when the shorter moving average pulls
away dramatically from the longer moving average (i.e., the MACD rises), it
is likely that the security price is overextending and will soon return to
more realistic levels. MACD overbought and oversold conditions vary from
security to security.
The other way some traders use MACD is to spot divergences from an
anticipated movement. Since there are no indicators or patterns that work
all the time, reactions against the anticipated move can signal a major
move. A bearish divergence occurs when the MACD is making new lows while
prices fail to reach new lows. A bullish divergence occurs when the MACD is
making new highs while prices fail to reach new highs. Both of these
divergences are most significant when they occur at relatively
overbought/oversold levels.
Let’s look at Rambus, RMBS.
After breaking support in early October, RMBS dropped along with the rest of
the chip stocks.
After Friday’s rise, it looked like RMBS was reversing and moving up, but it
failed on Monday afternoon.
Once again today, RMBS broke Monday’s high, flashed MACD Buy signal and a
Moving Average Crossover Buy.
It is worth a trade?
If RMBS takes out today’s high, October 19, 2000, tomorrow, I would Buy on a
break above 71
This cross above 71 will be a 20 period channel high.
I would Buy RMBS at 71.
I would place a stop at 68 3/4.
Many stocks are exhibiting similar patterns. Set up your TORS software with
the standard parameters used here and look for similar trades with good risk
vs. reward characteristics.
