Think of security prices as a war. It is a battle between a bull (the
buyer) and a bear (the seller). The bulls push prices higher and the bears
push prices lower. A buyer that feels an area has good value, will buy at
that level. The seller that feels that a stock has reached fair value, will
sell at that higher fair value price. The direction prices actually move
reveals who has won the battle.
Remember when a trade takes place, a buyer and seller agreed to a price.
There was a buyer and a seller involved in the transaction. The buyer feels
the stock will go up. The seller wants to move on to another stock that he
may feel will appreciate faster.
Support levels are the price where the majority of traders feel the value is
a good buy.
Resistance is the level in which the majority of traders feel prices will
move lower.
When the majority of traders and investors change their expectations, these
support and resistance areas get violated and a new trend may be beginning.
This can occur due to changes in expectation of earnings, new product
development, change of personnel, cut backs or expansions.
One interesting pattern that traders see after a breakout, is that the stock
or index retraces a part of the initial move by about 50%. If the 50%
retracement does not hold, the stock or index can still be in a trend if the
previous breakout resistance holds.
Let's look at Commerce One, Inc.
(NASDAQ: CMRC)
A breakout can be a 52 week high, 3 month high, 20 bar high or just about
any predetermined pattern a trader may choose.
CMRC is a stock that looks like it is breaking a 20 bar high and if it
breaks it will also be a 10-day high.
Resistance was at 67 and it broke that today.
The stock should continue higher and not move down very much from here.
If CMRC open unchanged or up, I would Buy CMRC here.
I would place a stop at 65.
As in all breakout patterns, do NOT take the trade if the stock gaps down at
the open.
