Moving Average Crossovers
Moving averages are one of the oldest and most popular technical analysis
tools.
A moving average is the average price of a security at a given time. When
calculating a moving average, you specify the time span to calculate the
average price for X number of periods. For example, 20 periods. These
periods may be 5 minute bars, 15 minute bars, 60 minute or daily bars).
The classic interpretation of a moving average is to use it to observe
changes in prices. Investors typically buy when a security's price rises
above its moving average and sell when the price falls below its moving
average.
The moving average crossover method calculates two moving averages, each
based on a different number of periods of trading data. When the
shorter-term (fewer days) average crosses above the longer-term average from
below, this is a buy signal for tomorrow's open. When the shorter-term
average crosses below the longer-term average from above, this is a sell
signal for tomorrow's open.
The current charts we are using calculate a 5-period and a 20-period
exponential MA of the closing prices on 60 minute bars. If the 5-period MA
crosses above (becomes greater than) the 20-period MA, you would buy the
next bars opening because the system is saying that an uptrend has begun.
You maintain this long position as long as the 5-period MA is greater than
the 20-period MA. When the 5-period MA crosses below the 20-period MA, the
trend is now down and you would liquidate your long position and establish a
new short position on the next bars open.
Let’s look at JDS Uniphase (NASDAQ: JDSU).
JDSU has been in an uptrend since the lows we saw in the NASDAQ in late May.
As we many times see, there was a quick whip in early June, but for the most
part JDSU has had its shorter moving average above the longer moving
average.
This action is the trend action that helps stay in for big profits.
However, now we see JDSU flashing a Sell signal.
There are many stocks with similar patterns.
I am not sure if we are going into retracements in these stocks or the start
of a new trend.
I would exit longs in JDSU.
An aggressive trader may want to short JDSU here.
I would place my stop on a short at 127 �.
