MACD “Moving Average Convergence/Divergence”
The MACD is a trend following
momentum indicator that shows the relationship between three moving averages
of prices.
This method can be used for any time frame. It could be 5 minute bars, 15
minutes bars or daily bars. Many traders will also trade in multiple time
frames using a longer time frame for trend, and the shorter period for entry
and exit.
We are looking at 60-minute charts below.
The MACD is the difference between a 26-period and 12-period exponential
moving average. A 9 period exponential moving average, called the “signal”
(or “trigger”) line is plotted on top of the MACD to show buy/sell
opportunities. On the charts below, the MACD line is the green colored
line, and the trailing, slower moving line is the signal line. Some
technical analysis programs will show the MACD as a histogram bar.
There are three popular ways to use the MACD: crossovers,
overbought/oversold conditions, and divergences.
The most common use is as a crossover method. Using this interpretation,
the trading rule is to sell when the MACD falls below its signal line.
Similarly, a buy signal occurs when the MACD rises above its signal line. It
is also popular to buy/sell when the MACD goes above/below zero.
Some traders will use MACD as an overbought and oversold indicator. When
using the indicator in this manner, when the shorter moving average pulls
away dramatically from the longer moving average (i.e., the MACD rises), it
is likely that the security price is overextending and will soon return to
more realistic levels. MACD overbought and oversold conditions vary from
security to security.
The other way some traders use MACD is to spot divergences from an
anticipated movement. Since there are no indicators or patterns that work
all the time, reactions against the anticipated move can signal a major
move. A bearish divergence occurs when the MACD is making new lows while
prices fail to reach new lows. A bullish divergence occurs when the MACD is
making new highs while prices fail to reach new highs. Both of these
divergences are most significant when they occur at relatively
overbought/oversold levels.
Let’s look at Siliconix Inc. (NASDAQ: SILI).
I hope all readers are using stops regardless of the side of the market you
are trading.
I am not a bottom picker, however there are strategies to use to get a
trader back into a stock that they were stopped out of days ago.
On Friday, March 31, 2000 we were looking at a similar pattern in EMLX. It
did not work!
We were stopped out and the stop saved us from real disaster. Does that
mean that MACD does not work? No, it only means MACD does not work all the
time. In fact, there are no indicators or patterns that work all the time.
I found MACD a reliable indicator and many issues on trading certainly
reflect the time frame used.
Today’s Market Call is on another volatile stock that is signaling a MACD
buy, however if you look at it on a daily basis is in a definite down trend.
But for Day Trading, we are using hourly bars for our trading. A
longer-term trader would not be following this advice.
After a decline from the last MACD sell signal on March 24, 2000 at 124 �,
SILI is now flashed a MACD Buy signal Friday.
I would Buy SILI on any up or unchanged open on Monday.
If the stock gaps down, do NOT take the trade.
As we see often, a stop is critical and I would place my stop 91.
