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PREVIOUS GO SHORT OPINION

Endesa DoubleClick Alcatel Alsthom Baan N.V. KTel Intl
ELE: (Endesa) This electrical utility has benefited from pre privatization fever. ELE   jumped from 16 to  27 in 6 months. After privatization is completed, we expect this stock's price to come down. Distribution has been taking place during the last 2 months of ELE's bull run. We believe this divergence will lead to a fall in Endesa's valuation. Trading at 19.4 times next year's estimates, with a PEG of 1.5 this utility is overvalued by any standard.(5/27/98)

 

DCLK (DOUBLECLICK): DCLK provides ad services for internet advertisers and web publishers. The stock, which went public in February, has benefited from the  mania for internet stocks in the U.S.A.  as anything remotely internet connected has been accorded stratospheric valuations. The shares rose from 41 to 76 this week after the company issued a press release touting a recent study that showed the DoubleClick network of websites to have the third largest online market share reach. This huge surge in price was largely due to a massive short squeeze that forced the shares up rapidly.  We expect this excessive rise to correct itself shortly. The optimism created by the shares rise is unwarranted. Several factors could drive these shares down over the coming months. Controversy erupted after competitor LinkExchange accused DCLK of overstating its percentage market share. Any continuation of this controversy could prove to be a drag on the stock price. This company trades on a bubble of investor optimism, not on fundamentals. We find the company's reliance on the AltaVista search engine for over 35% of their business as worrying. This reliance exposes the company to great risk. Revenues rose strongly in the latest quarter, but losses also rose as profit margins came under pressure. We expect profit margins in the online advertising business to continue to fall as competitive pressures rise. We also feel that it's only a matter of time before the giant traditional ad agencies muscle in on the smaller internet based ad agencies turf. The financial clout of the traditional advertisers will allow them to mount an all out war for ad dollars in the expanding internet marketplace. Trading at 18 times trailing sales, and with the endof the 6 month post-IPO lockup period looming,we expect DCLK to fall heavily when internet stocks begin to be valued on fundamentals rather than the word internet. We look for DCLK to give up all of the gains it made last week and would be sellers/shorters of the shares at these inflated levels.  (7/2/98)
 

 

ALA: (Alcatel Alsthom) Shares of this French telecom,power, and transport equipment maker have almost doubled since it announced plans to enhance shareholder value. We feel that the stock's rise has more than discounted the benefits to be gained from restructuring. Trading at 28.5X this year's earnings and 21.4 times next year's estimates this stock is overbought. We look for a correction back to April 27th's low of 35.   OBV has turned down and is showing a divergence to price. We believe that sentiment towards this stock is at a positive extreme. Now is the time to short this overbought equipment maker.  (5/26/98)

 

 

BAANF: (Baan N.V.)  This Dutch enterprise resource planning software group's stock went on a tear earlier this year to $55 a share.  Its rise was stopped by a first quarter earnings report that showed narrowing margins and increasing competitive pressures.   Earnings are growing at 44% a year, but we expect this to slow as competition heats up. We also expect year 2000 spending to cut into the software industry's sales. BAANF is currently trading at 79X this year's and 54 times next years earnings. We look for BAANF's PE ratio to contract to near its growth rate.  Based on next year's earnings this gives us a target of $35 for BAANF. Technically this stock is in a downtrend. There is strong distribution occurring, and the 21 day moving average has fallen below the 55 day. This stock is completing a head and shoulders top pattern. We rate it a short on both valuation and technicals. (5/26/98) This Dutch enterprise resource planning software group's stock went on a tear earlier this year to $55 a share.  Its rise was stopped by a first quarter earnings report that showed narrowing margins and increasing competitive pressures.   Earnings are growing at 44% a year, but we expect this to slow as competition heats up. We also expect year 2000 spending to cut into the software industry's sales. BAANF is currently trading at 79X this year's and 54 times next years earnings. We look for BAANF's PE ratio to contract to near its growth rate.  Based on next year's earnings this gives us a target of $35 for BAANF. Technically this stock is in a downtrend. There is strong distribution occurring, and the 21 day moving average has fallen below the 55 day. This stock is completing a head and shoulders top pattern. We rate it a short on both valuation and technicals. (5/26/98) This Dutch enterprise resource planning software group's stock went on a tear earlier this year to $55 a share.  Its rise was stopped by a first quarter earnings report that showed narrowing margins and increasing competitive pressures.   Earnings are growing at 44% a year, but we expect this to slow as competition heats up. We also expect year 2000 spending to cut into the software industry's sales. BAANF is currently trading at 79X this year's and 54 times next years earnings. We look for BAANF's PE ratio to contract to near its growth rate.  Based on next year's earnings this gives us a target of $35 for BAANF. Technically this stock is in a downtrend. There is strong distribution occurring, and the 21 day moving average has fallen below the 55 day. This stock is completing a head and shoulders top pattern. We rate it a short on both valuation and technicals. (5/26/98)
 

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Last modified: April 16, 2001

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