MACD "Moving Average Convergence/Divergence"
The "Moving Average Convergence/Divergence" is a trend following momentum
indicator that shows the relationship between three moving averages of
prices.
This method can be used for any time frame. It could be 5 minute bars, 15
minutes bars or daily bars. Many traders will also trade in multiple time
frames using a longer time frame for trend, and the shorter period for
entry and exit.
The MACD is the difference between a 26-period and 12-period exponential
moving average. A 9 period exponential moving average, called the "signal"
(or "trigger") line is plotted on top of the MACD to show buy/sell
opportunities. On the charts below, the MACD line is the green colored
line, and the trailing, slower moving line is the signal line. Some
technical analysis programs will show the MACD as a histogram bar.
There are three popular ways to use the MACD: crossovers,
overbought/oversold conditions, and divergences.
The most common use is as a crossover method. Using this interpretation,
the trading rule is to sell when the MACD falls below its signal line.
Similarly, a buy signal occurs when the MACD rises above its signal line.
It is also popular to buy/sell when the MACD goes above/below zero.
Some traders will use MACD as an overbought and oversold indicator. When
using the indicator in this manner, when the shorter moving average pulls
away dramatically from the longer moving average (i.e., the MACD rises), it
is likely that the security price is overextending and will soon return to
more realistic levels. MACD overbought and oversold conditions vary from
security to security.
The other way some traders use MACD is to spot divergences from an
anticipated movement. Since there are no indicators or patterns that work
all the time, reactions against the anticipated move can signal a major
move. A bearish divergence occurs when the MACD is making new lows while
prices fail to reach new lows. A bullish divergence occurs when the MACD is
making new highs while prices fail to reach new highs. Both of these
divergences are most significant when they occur at relatively
overbought/oversold levels.
I will also use MACD combined with the breaking of support. Support can be
defined differently depending on the strategy. I like using the lowest low
and highest high of the last 20 bars depending on my time frame.
Many stocks are exhibiting this pattern. Yesterday we saw it in EXDS.
Review your stock for this pattern.
Let's look at Dell Computer Corporation, (NASDAQ: DELL).
Both the MACD and a breakout of a 20 bar high occurred on August 18.
DELL looked like a MACD Sell on August 20, however this was not confirmed
by a break below the low of the last 20 bars.
We are now seeing a MACD Sell signal, which is being confirmed by a break
below the low of the last 20 bars.
As you can see from the chart below, when the MACD signals work, they work
out right away. The stocks do not reverse back. This makes this indicator a
good one to use with close stops.
I would enter a Short in DELL here.
I would place a stop at 47 1/2.
